Good afternoon! August financial exercise is healthier than anticipated, equities fall on fears the Fed could observe by on its plans to cut back its asset buying plan.
The corn market pale at present off yesterday’s features, buying and selling in almost a 10-cent vary. Export gross sales had been weak and triggered some worth strain. Considerations quantity for how quickly and the way a lot corn China will want.
CZ: -4; CH: -4
Export Gross sales had been anemic at 9.7 million bushels versus 20-39 mbu anticipated. Mexico was the main purchaser at 6.1 mbu with Unknown credited with 3.0 mbu. Milo Export Gross sales had been stable at 8.1 mbu. China bought 4.6 mbu, Mexico purchased 1.4 mbu, and “Unknown” is credited with 3.0 mbu in purchases.
On this planet market, Argentine producers are stated to be aggressive sellers of latest crop corn with 250 Ok MT bought final week, which brings their 2022 crop whole to round 6.5 MMT. There additionally could also be indications that China has returned to the U.S. market for milo in latest days. Moreover, in accordance with Anec, Brazil’s September corn exports will possible attain 2.9 MMT, nicely wanting the 6.4 million shipped final September.
C&F Costs to Japan:
Dalian Futures: CF: -6 @ $9.67 (1 Yuan = .15550 U.S. $)
Beans traded in a 17-cent vary at present. U.S. Soybean export demand is questionable. After latest occasions, how a lot will probably be deferred and the way a lot will probably be misplaced to our opponents?
SX: + 1 ½; SF: + 1 ¼; SMV: +$4.30; SMZ: +$4.50; BOV: -$.0148; BOZ: -$.0153
China bought 132,000 MT of soybeans for supply within the 2021-22 advertising 12 months at present. This represents solely 40% of what was canceled yesterday. Soybean export gross sales had been sturdy at 46.5 mbu. The full got here in in direction of the highest of the typical consensus vary of 22-51mbu and almost doubled the 25 per week wanted quantity. China bought 35 mbu and “Unknown” was accountable for 6 mbu.
The rest of the soybean complicated gross sales weren’t very spectacular. And but, the unshipped Soybean Meal e book (previous and new) is document massive for this time of 12 months and at 3.4 MMT and is up 22% versus final 12 months. With Board crush close to $.90, we must always see an energetic fall meal export program.
Soybean Meal gross sales at 95.4 Ok MT had been under the 130,000 per week implied fee however close to the highest finish of the estimated 25-100,000 MT vary. Gross sales for 2022-23 crop at 42 Ok MT fell wanting the 50-250 Ok vary. Soybean oil dropped once more this week to unfavourable 1.7 Ok MT after cancellations from Canada of 1.8 Ok MT. New crop totaled to six.1 Ok MT which fell within the higher half of the anticipated vary.
Extra chatter of China shopping for further portions of Brazilian soybeans surfaced at present, with estimates starting from 6 to greater than 10 cargoes bought. Brazil’s exporter group, Anec has upped its forecast of the nation’s September soybean exports by 400 Ok to 4.8 MMT, a 23+% improve over the 2020 whole of three.9 MMT.
Yesterday’s August NOPA crush report suggests the USDA ought to increase its previous crop estimate 4-5 mbu.
C&F Costs to China— Observe: “Brzl Quality” displays approx. $.25/bu Brazil high quality benefit versus U.S.
Dalian Futures—SF, +13 @ $25.04; SMF, -$0.40 @ $498; BOF, +$.0095 @ $.6414; POF, +$.0138 @ $.6012
The European crop shrinks and milling high quality considerations come up giving wheat a slight bump after almost buying and selling a 12-cent vary.
WZ: +3/4; WH: + ½; KWZ, +3 ¾; KWH, +3 ½; MWZ, +1 ¼; MWH, +1
Wheat export gross sales had been superb. At 22.7 mbu gross sales got here in above the anticipated vary of 11-26 mbu anticipated and 13 per week wanted. Nigeria bought 12.1 mbu which accounted for over half the overall gross sales. HRW, 16.5 TW (8.4 LW); HRS, 2.8 (2.9); SRW 900 Ok (1.3 mbu); White, 1.7 (1.8); Durum, 730 Ok (0)
Strategie Grains is estimating the European Union smooth wheat crop at 129.1 MMT, a 2.4 million minimize from its August estimate. And, as a lot as 40% of the crop could not attain milling requirements, up from 27% a 12 months in the past.
FOB/CIF Wheat Costs to Egypt
IWDS Supply Calculations (Sep CIF soybeans are versus SX; Corn, CZ)
Rain within the corn belt is forecasted by the center of subsequent week are anticipated to vary between 1/10 and ¾” with some quantities of 1 to 2 inches, particularly within the south. The Northern Plains will probably be dry into the primary a part of the weekend with rain quantities of 1/third to 1 ½” overlaying 70% of the area. The Southeast U.S. is forecast to obtain one to 4 inches of rain by Wednesday from japanese Mississippi into central Georgia primarily as a result of remnant moisture from Tropical Despair Nicholas. ¾ to three” could be anticipated for the Delta though southern LA/MS might see 3 ½ to six”.
Cat Sullivan is a threat advisor at Advance Trading Inc. The chance of buying and selling futures and choices could be substantial. All info, publications, and materials used and distributed by Advance Buying and selling Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI doesn’t keep an impartial analysis division as outlined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Info obtained from third-party sources is believed to be dependable, however its accuracy just isn’t assured by Advance Buying and selling Inc. Previous efficiency just isn’t essentially indicative of future outcomes.
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