Tomorrow’s month-to-month World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report would be the second main market report launched by USDA in as many weeks. Admittedly, there is not going to doubtless be as many modifications on this report as in earlier ones, particularly to provides.
Plus, USDA will launch new crop provide and demand estimates for the 2021/22 advertising and marketing 12 months in subsequent month’s report. USDA attachés are already releasing estimates on new crop production, import, and export expectations, so markets will warmly welcome the brand new crop forecasts subsequent month.
USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) may even add new soymeal utilization designations for China within the Might 2021 WASDE report, with the final word objective of figuring out Chinese language utilization and storage charges for the feedstuff in thoughts. Rising international feed demand in addition to rising demand for renewable diesel fuels (largely produced by soyoil) is main the cost for elevated soybean consumption world wide.
However that doesn’t imply you must sleep on this month’s report. Here’s a listing of things the markets will probably be watching when in the present day’s report is launched.
Final week’s Quarterly Grain Shares report supplied some hints about USDA’s changes which might be doubtless in in the present day’s WASDE report. USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) pared 28 million bushels of corn from December 1, 2020 quarterly shares final Wednesday, whereas including 13 million bushels of soybeans and 29 million bushels of wheat to December 1 inventories.
The changes had been made resulting from late-submitted studies from off-farm and industrial storage services. We’ll see the revision within the type of an adjustment to every commodity’s residual and feed utilization class from WAOB.
Demand rationing may even be excessive on the listing of things to look at in the present day, notably for soybeans. Home loading paces have declined considerably up to now month because the Brazilian crop begins to enter worldwide delivery channels. Weekly common soy export loading paces to China over the previous eight weeks are over six occasions decrease than the full weekly common delivery charge.
To make sure, the U.S. stays comfortably on observe to succeed in its 2.25-billion-bushel soybean export goal for the 2020/21 season. Essentially the most vital unknown at this level is the scale of the Brazilian crop and the way shortly – if in any respect – the South American nation will run out of exportable provides and drive Chinese language patrons again to U. S. shores for soybeans.
Home soybean crush charges slowed in the course of the February 2021 chilly snap, however advertising and marketing 12 months to this point crush charges stay 4% greater than the identical time a 12 months prior
The USDA appears extra prone to regulate ending shares for corn decrease on elevated export demand. Weekly corn export shipments totaled 80.8 million bushels on this morning’s weekly Export Gross sales report from USDA – the second highest weekly quantity on report, not counting the weeks following authorities shutdowns. It’s price noting that 5 of the most important weekly corn export loading volumes have been reported over the previous six weeks.
Chinese language demand performed a big position within the giant corn delivery paces – 28% of final week’s shipments (22.8M bu) had been shipped to China. China’s whole haul of U.S. corn this 12 months at present registers at 356 million bushels. U.S. exports solely shipped 83.1 million bushels of corn to China in all the 2019/20 advertising and marketing 12 months.
However China isn’t the one nation hungry for U.S. corn. Advertising and marketing year-to-date corn shipments to the following 5 largest U.S. patrons (Mexico, Japan, Columbia, South Korea, and Taiwan) are up practically 25% from the identical interval in 2019/20. The biggest will increase are being pushed by Southeast Asian nations, particularly South Korea (290% improve), Japan (31%), and Taiwan (188%).
World wheat shares are prone to see few shifts in ending shares revisions in tomorrow’s report. And there isn’t a lot of a brand new story there – international provides are prone to stay excessive to shut out 2020/21 and are anticipated to develop even greater as high exporters Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine see favorable rising circumstances.
The actual story will lie with corn and soybean international shares. Any revisions to U.S. demand estimates and South American provide forecasts will tighten international provides. However as soybean shares stay tighter than these of corn, the oilseed complicated may see extra bullish buying and selling exercise as USDA’s forecasts are up to date.
Corn and soybean futures costs will doubtless see probably the most worth motion from any revisions USDA applies to South American grain production estimates. Brazil’s authorities ag forecasting company, Conab, launched up to date production estimates this morning for the present crops beneath production.
Conab expects Brazil’s whole 2020/21 corn crop will rise practically 1% from March 2021 estimates to 4.290 billion bushels. Nonetheless, estimates for the safrinha, or second rotation, corn crop fell 0.2% from final month as nearly all of the crop has been planted exterior of the optimum yield window to three.252 billion bushels.
Brazil exports most of its safrinha corn crop, so any USDA reductions to Brazil’s 2020/21 corn production will doubtless end in a rise in U.S. corn exports. Nonetheless, current USDA attaché studies recommend that the WAOB may lower Brazil’s corn estimate all the way down to 4.134 billion bushels.
Conab additionally forecasts the 2020/21 soybean crop to register 4.98 billion bushels, barely greater from March estimates regardless of high quality issues amid extreme rainfall in the course of the harvest season. USDA attaché projections point out USDA will go away Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean production whole at 4.924 billion bushels.