Home Crop Monitoring Concerns for 2022: commodity prices down, or input prices up?

Concerns for 2022: commodity prices down, or input prices up?

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What are the dangers for the 2022 crop? Climate, after all, is at all times an element, however what in regards to the markets? What if we will in contrast the dangers of the market declining, to the potential for input prices additional rising? Margins may very well be a heck of rather a lot tighter subsequent 12 months, until commodity prices make strikes greater.

On the most recent Farmer Fast Hearth, RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney requested the query: For the 2022 crop, are you extra involved about commodity prices coming down, or input prices going up?

Terry Philips, of New Liskeard, Ont., mentioned that crops in his space look good for this 12 months, however rotational points in his space may crop up for subsequent 12 months. Philips is extra frightened about value of manufacturing going up for subsequent 12 months — pricing out his fertilizer wants has him involved, at charges nearly doubled the earlier 12 months, and he doesn’t foresee returns doubling.

Binbrook, Ont., farmer Drew Spoelstra can be frightened about value of manufacturing rising — saying that commodity prices will inevitably come again down, and inputs are usually rather a lot slower to comply with swimsuit. “The cost of production and the cost of inputs is certainly a high stress level for producers, and it’s something that we’re going to have to keep a close eye on going forward,” says Spoelstra.

“I guess it’s pretty much sure that input prices are going to rise. The double-whammy would be if commodity prices soften, fairly rapidly, which I haven’t seen a lot of yet,” says Fred Greig, of Reston, Man., in step with what Spoelstra mentioned in regards to the state of affairs. Added prices, or any interruptions within the gas or fertilizer provide chain may additionally throw a wrench in 2022 plans.

Josh Linville has carried out wonderful analysis on fertilizer pricing and forecasting:

Though yields have been 50 per cent lower than traditional for Mike Beckie, of Davidson, Sask., excessive commodity prices (and timing of contracting) has given him a leg up in a way. In his space, he foresees expertise and stage of farming profession to be a serious deciding issue for advertising and marketing choices. “If we start getting some moisture, and it’s looking like an average crop, well we know what the price is going to end up doing,” he says, however he’s involved about each of these issues taking place subsequent 12 months.

Greg Sears, of Sexsmith, Alta. rounds out the overall consensus of considerations over elevated input prices. “It’d be one thing if we had an average to bumper crop, but most of Western Canada didn’t, so that’s going to be a tough thing to swallow, I think,” says Sears.



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