Statistics Canada pegs the 2021 crop down considerably primarily based on its satellite tv for pc imagery modelling.
StatsCan places nationwide wheat production down 34.8 per cent, canola down 24.3 per cent to 14.7 million tonnes, and soybeans down 8.4 per cent 12 months over 12 months to five.8 million tonne.
Grain corn is the one vivid spot, with a rise in Ontario production resulting in a slight uptick to 13.7 million tonnes (+0.8%). Many of the improve is because of yield, as harvested space fell nationally.
Wheat production in Ontario is projected to rise 8.9 per cent to 2.7 million tonnes 12 months over 12 months, on elevated harvested acres (+2.3%) and yields (+6.4%).
Forward of the report, analysts steered the StatsCan canola quantity might land anyplace between 11 million and 16 million tonnes. Agriculture and Agri-Meals Canada pegged its canola production estimate down to fifteen MT final week.
Prairie canola yields are anticipated to drop 30.1 per cent to 29.2 bushels per acre, offsetting greater harvested space of twenty-two.2 million acres.
Ontario’s harvested space of soybeans is up, at 2.9 million acres, whereas yield is anticipated to lower 4.7 per cent to 48.3 bushels per acre. In Manitoba, soybean production is projected to lower 30.8 per cent to nicely underneath one million tonnes in 2021, whereas harvested space is anticipated to extend 13.5 per cent to 1.3 million acres
StatsCan says that the Normalized Distinction Vegetation Index (NDVI) curves, that are a measure of plant well being, indicated that in nearly all elements of the Prairies, crops reached peak well being nicely forward of regular. In some cases, peak NDVI occurred as much as 4 weeks earlier, earlier than lowering quickly as a scarcity of moisture and excessive temperatures took a toll on plant well being.
StatsCan states that the satellite tv for pc expertise mannequin for preliminary crop yields and production has been used since 2016. “These methods have successfully been used to produce September yield estimates since 2016, and they replaced July yield estimates beginning in 2020. While dry conditions may lead to an increase in abandoned acres, coarse resolution-based modelling relies on historical averages for harvested area,” the Each day report reads.
Last harvested space estimates might be revealed on December 3, 2021, primarily based on the November 2021 Area Crop Survey.