There was inexperienced on the screen following the launch of the United States Division of Agriculture’s much-anticipated Potential Plantings and Quarterly Grain Shares reports on Wednesday.
Each corn and soybean acres got here in beneath what the market was searching for, as properly as what the USDA projected at its outlook discussion board final month.
“That really just helps shoot the markets higher,” notes Rejeana Gvillo, senior commodity analyst with Farmers Enterprise Community (FBN). “That wheat number came in bigger but with that smaller corn acre total, that is really helping pull up wheat, and for the Canadian grower — canola is stronger right now, and acres are expected to be up, but with this low bean number, the market really has taken off.”
the numbers, once we take into consideration the shopping for that China doubtlessly has to do in 2021, it instantly begs the query: will there be sufficient soybeans?
“If you plug that 87.6 (million acres) into a balance sheet, while assuming normal harvested area totals, you are looking at a carryout of below the 200 million bushel mark for the U.S. So we are facing another year of a pretty tight supply situation. And really looking at the Prospective Plantings report — that’s the case across the board. Again, with winter wheat being the exception,” Gvillo says.
The corn acreage projection was additionally a lower quantity than what the market was searching for, at 91 million acres. Gvillo notes that once more, in case you insert these numbers — with regular harvesting space totals — right into a steadiness sheet, there received’t be giant surpluses by any means.
One among the solely bearish numbers in the planting intentions report was the estimate for arduous pink winter wheat, with the quantity coming in increased than expectations.
“We were definitely surprised to see that market higher with that winter wheat acre total coming in, but my guess is corn is helping lift that market,” Gvillo explains. “Smaller corn supplies could translate to marginal boost and wheat feeding.”
Take a look at the full dialog between Rejeana Gvillo and RealAgriculture’s Shaun Haney, beneath: