Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for April 9, 2021

Morning Market Review for April 9, 2021

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Plus: a preview of at the moment’s WASDE report

  • Corn up 3 cents
  • Soybeans up 1 cent, soyoil down $0.39/lb, soymeal up $2.60/ton
  • Wheat up 4-5 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Completely satisfied WASDE day! As we speak’s month-to-month World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report would be the second main market report launched by USDA in as many weeks. Admittedly, there won’t possible be as many modifications on this report as in earlier ones, particularly to provides.

However that doesn’t imply you need to sleep on this month’s report. Right here is preview of factors the markets shall be watching when at the moment’s report is launched.

Farm Futures will present stay protection and evaluation the reviews on our web site, FarmFutures.com, and on our Twitter web page, @FarmFutures. USDA releases the up to date knowledge at 11am CDT.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Final week’s Quarterly Grain Shares report offered some hints about USDA’s changes which can be possible in at the moment’s WASDE report. USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) pared 28 million bushels of corn from December 1, 2020 quarterly shares final Wednesday, whereas including 13 million bushels of soybeans and 29 million bushels of wheat to December 1 inventories.

The changes have been made as a consequence of late-submitted reviews from off-farm and industrial storage amenities. We’ll see the revision within the type of an adjustment to every commodity’s residual and feed utilization class from WAOB.

Demand rationing may even be excessive on the checklist of things to observe at the moment, significantly for soybeans. Home loading paces have declined considerably previously month because the Brazilian crop begins to enter worldwide transport channels. Weekly common soy export loading paces to China over the previous eight weeks are over six occasions decrease than the whole weekly common transport price.

To make sure, the U.S. stays comfortably on monitor to succeed in its 2.25-billion-bushel soybean export goal for the 2020/21 season. Probably the most vital unknown at this level is the dimensions of the Brazilian crop and the way shortly – if in any respect – the South American nation will run out of exportable provides and pressure Chinese language consumers again to U. S. shores for soybeans.

Home soybean crush charges slowed throughout the February 2021 chilly snap, however advertising 12 months up to now crush charges stay 4% greater than the identical time a 12 months prior as demand for biodiesel continues to strengthen.

The USDA appears extra prone to alter ending shares for corn decrease on elevated export demand. Weekly corn export shipments totaled 80.8 million bushels in yesterday’s weekly Export Sales report from USDA – the second highest weekly quantity on report, not counting the weeks following authorities shutdowns. It’s price noting that 5 of the most important weekly corn export loading volumes have been reported over the previous six weeks.

Chinese language demand performed a big position within the giant corn transport paces – 28% of final week’s shipments (22.8M bu) have been shipped to China. China’s whole haul of U.S. corn this 12 months presently registers at 356 million bushels. U.S. exports solely shipped 83.1 million bushels of corn to China in your entire 2019/20 advertising 12 months.

However China isn’t the one nation hungry for U.S. corn. Advertising and marketing year-to-date corn shipments to the following 5 largest U.S. consumers (Mexico, Japan, Columbia, South Korea, and Taiwan) are up practically 25% from the identical interval in 2019/20. Southeast Asian international locations are driving the most important will increase, particularly South Korea (290% enhance), Japan (31%), and Taiwan (188%).

World Ending Stocks

World wheat shares are prone to see few shifts in ending shares revisions in tomorrow’s report. And there isn’t a lot of a brand new story there – world provides are prone to stay excessive to shut out 2020/21 and are anticipated to develop even greater as high exporters Russia, the European Union, and Ukraine see favorable rising situations. Anticipate the availability will increase to be largely offset by strengthening world feed demand.

The true story will lie with corn and soybean world shares. Any revisions to U.S. demand estimates and South American provide forecasts will tighten world provides. However as soybean shares stay tighter than these of corn, the oilseed complicated might see extra bullish buying and selling exercise as USDA’s forecasts are up to date.

South American Corn Soy Production

Corn and soybean futures costs will possible see probably the most worth motion from any revisions USDA applies to South American grain manufacturing estimates. Brazil’s authorities ag forecasting company, Conab, launched up to date manufacturing estimates this morning for the present crops beneath manufacturing.

Conab expects Brazil’s whole 2020/21 corn crop will rise practically 1% from March 2021 estimates to 4.290 billion bushels. Nevertheless, estimates for the safrinha, or second rotation, corn crop fell 0.2% from final month as nearly all of the crop has been planted exterior of the optimum yield window to three.252 billion bushels.

Brazil exports most of its safrinha corn crop, so any USDA reductions to Brazil’s 2020/21 corn manufacturing will possible end in a rise in U.S. corn exports. Nevertheless, current USDA attaché reviews recommend that the WAOB might lower Brazil’s corn estimate all the way down to 4.134 billion bushels.

Conab additionally forecasts the 2020/21 soybean crop to register 4.98 billion bushels, barely greater from March estimates regardless of high quality issues amid extreme rainfall throughout the harvest season. USDA attaché projections point out USDA will go away Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean manufacturing whole at 4.924 billion bushels.

USDA World Production

Corn

Corn costs edged a pair cents greater in a single day after China greater than doubled its 2020/21 corn import targets to 866.1 million bushels in its newest Chinese language Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimate report launched in a single day. Climate issues proceed to maintain corn futures close to an eight-year excessive as merchants finalize positions forward of this morning’s WASDE report.

Complete Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm expects that at the moment’s WASDE report might push grain markets out of the present buying and selling patterns. “The agency [USDA] hasn’t shown much for demand changes or global supply changes in over two months, so trade is anxious for some fresh news,” Blohm writes within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.

Corn has the most important potential for a bullish worth run at the moment. Blohm cites exports as a possibility to extend utilization targets for 2020/21 corn and speculates that ethanol might see a lift as effectively. “Corn used in last week’s production was estimated to be near 98.5 million bushels, ahead of the 96 million bushels needed each week to keep corn use for ethanol in line with the USDA projection of 4.95 billion bushels,” Blohm analyzes.

Blohm additionally notes that ADM will restart ethanol manufacturing at its vegetation in Cedar Rapids, Iowa and Columbus, Nebraska within the coming week. Farmers close to these amenities ought to regulate money costs within the weeks to return, Blohm cautions. “Curiosity will get the best of me as I wonder how a start-up of those two facilities will affect cash prices and basis for corn in those Midwestern areas.”

Soybeans

Soybean futures costs have been largely flat to a partial penny greater within the in a single day commerce. The minor features to new crop futures urged that the market isn’t too nervous – but – about rains within the Midwest that might doubtlessly delay planting progress. Merchants anticipate home soybean shares to stay unchanged at the moment, so any downward inventory revisions might trigger upward worth momentum.

Land values in Brazil are rising as commodity costs supply farmers snug working capital margins. And Commstock Funding’s Matthew Kruse factors out that it’s making discovering land to hire tougher. Kruse takes a deep dive into the dynamics of Brazilian land values in a current Ag Marketing IQ column..

Wheat

Wheat costs continued $0.04-$0.06/bushel greater this morning as dry climate within the Plains continues to damper spring wheat planting progress. The wheat complicated derived a few of its power from underlying features within the corn market.

Climate situations in Europe have offered some frost issues in current days, which might restrict yield potential from the world’s largest wheat producer. Dry climate issues are additionally elevating new worries about yield injury as Europe’s winter wheat crop progress via the jointing stage.

Climate

Planting progress will largely stay at a standstill throughout the Heartland this weekend, in response to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Rain showers will proceed to linger over the Higher Nice Lakes states at the moment whereas the Southern and Central Plains see one other spherical of spring thunderstorms.  

Rains within the Plains tomorrow will push north into the Higher Midwest and Jap Corn Belt by Sunday. The back-to-back rain techniques will possible maintain farmers out of the fields via not less than the primary a part of subsequent week.

After final week’s showers subsided, dry climate settled into the Heartland, sending drought situations throughout the U.S., as reported within the College of Nebraska’s weekly drought monitor, 0.95% greater to 64.36%.

040921DroughtMonitor.jpg

Soil moisture ranges grew extra depleted within the Midwest, Northeast, South, and West via the week ending April 6. Areas of the Plains benefited from rainfall, however the excessive drought areas within the Dakotas grew from the earlier week. That is particularly essential as a result of forestall plant dates are approaching for corn and spring wheat in that space. The extraordinarily dry soils might cut back acreage in each states, which might shrink provides which can be already projected to be tight this 12 months.

There may be some hope on the horizon – up to date forecasts launched yesterday level to easing La Niña climate patterns by the top of April. La Niña crop years sometimes end in dry climate throughout the U.S., South America, and the Black Sea area in Europe. Whereas that might imply extra showers within the coming months, NOAA’s short-term forecasts recommend a dry planting season this 12 months.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 4/9/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Internet Change % Change
MAY ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.82 5.77 5.815 0.0175 0.30%
JUL ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.65 5.5975 5.6425 0.0225 0.40%
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.1325 5.0925 5.1275 0.0275 0.54%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  4.9875 4.94 4.9775 0.03 0.61%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.0525 5.01 5.05 0.035 0.70%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.09 5.0525 5.0875 0.0325 0.64%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.1075 5.07 5.1 0.0275 0.54%
MAY ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.19 14.0725 14.155 0.0025 0.02%
JUL ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.135 14.02 14.1 0.0025 0.02%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.7675 13.67 13.735 -0.0025 -0.02%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.0275 12.9725 13.025 0.0025 0.02%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.7475 12.685 12.7475 0.015 0.12%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.725 12.675 12.725 0.01 0.08%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.44 12.39 12.44 0.0075 0.06%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.3825 12.34 12.37 -0.0025 -0.02%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.3625 12.3625 12.3625 0.005 0.04%
MAY ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 53.9 52.83 52.95 -0.43 -0.81%
JUL ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 51.65 50.91 50.98 -0.43 -0.84%
MAY ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 409.7 405.3 409.7 2.9 0.71%
JUL ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 413.4 409.1 413.3 2.9 0.71%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 409.5 405.4 409.5 3 0.74%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 403.9 399.9 403.9 3.2 0.80%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 396.6 393.8 396.5 2.4 0.61%
MAY ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.335 6.2725 6.3225 0.035 0.56%
JUL ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.3475 6.285 6.34 0.035 0.56%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.355 6.3075 6.3525 0.0325 0.51%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.4 6.355 6.3975 0.03 0.47%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.44 6.395 6.435 0.0275 0.43%
MAY ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.8275 5.7675 5.805 0.04 0.69%
JUL ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.9 5.8375 5.8775 0.04 0.69%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.9675 5.91 5.9475 0.0425 0.72%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.065 6.0175 6.0525 0.0475 0.79%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.15 6.1025 6.1375 0.04 0.66%
MAY ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.445 6.4025 6.445 0.0425 0.66%
JUL ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.5175 6.475 6.5175 0.0425 0.66%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.5925 6.5475 6.5925 0.045 0.69%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.68 6.64 6.68 0.0425 0.64%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.7075 6.7075 6.7075 0.0025 0.04%
JUN ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 92.34 92.035 92.25 0.181 0.20%
 MA ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  59.95 59.13 59.6 0 0.00%
 JU ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  59.94 59.13 59.6 -0.03 -0.05%
MAY ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.8124 1.7893 1.8032 -0.0066 -0.36%
JUN ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.8148 1.7915 1.8053 -0.0065 -0.36%
MAY ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.9632 1.94 1.9559 -0.0034 -0.17%
JUN ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.9635 1.9402 1.9568 -0.0029 -0.15%
APR ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 147.125 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 151.6 0 0.00%
 AP ’21 Reside Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 124.15 0 0.00%
 JU ’21 Reside Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 125.025 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Reside Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 103.475 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Reside Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 105.425 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.56 #N/A 17.63 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 19.4 19.4 19.4 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 19.65 19.56 19.56 -0.06 -0.31%



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