Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for August 19, 2021

Morning Market Review for August 19, 2021

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Plus – the EPA points a closing ruling on chlorpyrifos use

  • Corn down 4-7 cents
  • Soybeans down 13-18 cents, soymeal down $2.80/ton, soyoil down $1.03/lb
  • Chicago & Kansas Metropolis wheat down 9-13 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 3-5 cents

*Costs as of seven:00 am CDT.

Good Morning!  The primary guess at nationwide yields are in for 2021. How are crops holding out in your area? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop situations. Our Google Map, up to date day by day, supplies all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the newest farmer feedback from across the nation.

Corn

A rallying greenback, falling power costs, and stronger than anticipated yield prospects in second-largest producer Illinois despatched corn futures $0.04-$0.07/bushel decrease this morning.

The continuing Professional Farmer crop tour discovered yields in Illinois to be projected at 196.30 bushels per acre (bpa), hovering above final yr’s tour estimate of 189.40 bpa for the Prairie State and considerably above the tour’s three-year common of 184.40 bpa. Corn crops in Western Iowa additionally confirmed promise of upper yields in yesterday’s tour circuit.

USDA releases weekly export gross sales estimates this morning for the week ending August 12. Whereas pre-report expectations place previous crop corn export gross sales on the decrease finish of commerce ranges (-3.9 million – 7.9 million bushels), the outlook for new crop corn gross sales is far brighter.

Mexico booked a 6.0-million -bushel 2021/22 corn order in the course of the August 6-12 reporting week, which is prone to ship as we speak’s weekly new crop gross sales vary up between 11.8 million – 36.6 million bushels.

Export shipments are prone to stay steady relative to final week’s volumes. USDA’s Grains Inspection for Export report launched Monday confirmed 29.7 million bushels of corn weighed at export terminals for the week ending August 12, up 1% from the week prior.

Ethanol manufacturing noticed a fourth straight week of declining volumes, in line with contemporary information launched by the U.S. Power Info Administration yesterday. For the week ending August 13, the EIA reported weekly ethanol manufacturing volumes to fall 1.3% from the earlier week to 973 barrels/day of output.

It was the smallest weekly manufacturing quantity recorded since late April 2021 as decrease refiner demand, which slipped 1% on the week to 921 barrels/day, restricted hopes for an ethanol enlargement because the 2020/21 corn advertising and marketing yr involves a detailed.

Shopper gasoline demand has eased over the previous few weeks, as summer season holidays wind down and faculties return to session. Weekly gasoline utilization charges have fallen 4.5% over the previous two reporting weeks, triggering smaller ethanol mixing volumes from refiners.

Whereas gas consumption stays greater than in the course of the peak of the pandemic a yr in the past, gas utilization charges have struggled to constantly return to pre-pandemic ranges this summer season. Summertime 2021 gas consumption is 3% decrease than the identical interval in 2019.

If this development retains up as harvest season approaches, growers could must look past the native ethanol plant for worthwhile foundation pricing alternatives. Export terminals might present extra pricing choices this fall for growers seeking to promote bushels off the mix.

Soybeans

Soybean costs fell $0.06-$0.17/bushel this morning as falling power costs and a stronger greenback threaten demand outlooks for the oilseed. A positive forecast for the Midwest and bettering yield prospects additionally weighed on the soy complicated this morning.

“Weather forecasters are expecting cooler and wetter conditions in the northwest of the Midwest starting this weekend,” Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural technique at Commonwealth Financial institution of Australia, instructed Reuters this morning.

A spherical of profit-taking was doubtless additionally at play, as new giant day by day export gross sales have been introduced by USDA for ten consecutive buying and selling days, bettering export optimism for U.S. soy.

Ongoing nationwide crop excursions surveyed Illinois and Western Iowa yesterday. Whereas soybean yields should not estimated, pod counts in three-foot-by-three-foot squares noticed annual enhancements of two.6% in Illinois. Whole counts for Iowa shall be decided as we speak, however within the three districts surveyed in Western Iowa yesterday, pod counts improved between 4.1%-17.5%.

Outdated crop soybean export gross sales anticipated in as we speak’s Export Gross sales report will doubtless tally a lackluster complete (commerce vary: -2.8 million – 7.3 million bushels) for the week ending August 12, particularly because the advertising and marketing yr inches to a detailed.

However Chinese language and unknown patrons mixed for 35.2 million bushels of recent giant day by day 2021/22 soybean export orders in the course of the August 6-12 reporting week, which ought to give a bullish increase to soybean gross sales volumes in as we speak’s Export Gross sales report. Commerce guesses peg the brand new crop export sale vary for the week between 36.7 million – 66.1 million bushels.

If USDA’s tally is available in on the excessive finish of the commerce vary, it might be the biggest weekly new crop soybean sale quantity booked to this point within the 2021/22 advertising and marketing yr. That bodes very nicely for soybean costs, particularly contemplating new crop gross sales volumes to high purchaser China are 54% decrease than the identical time a yr in the past.

Weekly export cargo volumes might see a slight uptick this week in addition to China begins to bulk up its seasonal soy purchases from the U.S. Monday’s Grains Inspection for Export report launched by USDA noticed weekly soybean inspections for export rise by almost 6 million bushels on the week to 10.2 million bushels.

Wheat

Wheat costs bore the brunt of a rallying greenback as Chicago and Kansas Metropolis futures fell $0.10-$0.13/bushel in in a single day buying and selling. Whereas markets seemed to be giving again a number of the beneficial properties from tightening manufacturing forecasts within the Northern Hemisphere, issues about slowing international development because of rising COVID-19 circumstances performed a big position in decrease costs in a single day. Losses to the Minneapolis wheat complicated have been much less extreme, solely down $0.03-$0.05/bushel.

It’s peak export season for wheat, however a smaller spring wheat crop continues to carry again export volumes. Commerce analysts anticipate as we speak’s weekly Export Gross sales report from USDA will vary between 9.2 million – 18.4 million bushels for new crop export orders booked in the course of the August 6-12 reporting interval.

Early estimates recommend will probably be an uncharacteristically gradual week for export shipments additionally, as transport competitors from corn and soybeans heats up. Monday’s Grains Inspection for Export report launched by USDA tallied weekly wheat export shipments at 16.2 million bushels, down by almost a 3rd from every week prior.

Climate

Temperatures will warmth up throughout the Midwest as we speak, with a lot of the studying space seeing the mercury rise about 90 levels, in line with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Temperatures alongside the Nice Lakes are prone to stay within the 80’s, favoring crop growth within the Jap Corn Belt.

Scattered showers will proceed to fall within the Jap Corn Belt as we speak, with extra showers anticipated within the Northern and Central Plains within the subsequent 24 hours. Accumulation just isn’t anticipated to high a half inch within the Jap Corn Belt whereas the Northern Plains might see an inch of precipitation within the subsequent 24 hours.

Financials

Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 37,158,309 circumstances as of this morning in line with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The dying toll elevated to 624,260 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated towards the virus.

In line with the CDC, over 72% of U.S. adults have acquired a minimum of one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist increase immunity charges. Over 169 million People (51%) are absolutely vaccinated. Over 4.8 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Yesterday, the U.S. Environmental Safety Company (EPA) introduced a ban on the pesticide chlorpyrifos for use in meals crops, citing a long-established physique of scientific work that proves the pesticide, generally used on meals crops, may cause mind harm and different well being issues in youngsters.

Because the scientific proof of chlorpyrifos’ damaging impacts on youngsters is over a decade previous, the EPA is about to publish the rule in closing kind, which suggests there won’t be a public remark interval to dispute it. Chlorpyrifos is usually utilized in corn and soybean manufacturing, marketed largely by Corteva. Nevertheless, Corteva introduced final yr it could cease producing the pesticide as more and more stringent state rules minimize into gross sales margins.

“EPA is taking an overdue step to protect public health,” stated EPA Administrator Michael Regan. “Ending the use of chlorpyrifos on food will help to ensure children, farmworkers, and all people are protected from the potentially dangerous consequences of this pesticide.”

A rally within the greenback helped push U.S. inventory indices decrease this morning because the uptick in COVID-19 circumstances threatens to hinder financial restoration. After fleeting moments of value beneficial properties, power costs returned to a state of freefall as Brent crude oil costs shed round $3.70/barrel from yesterday’s highs on the rising issues of one other financial slowdown. It was a three-month low for oil costs.

The Federal Reserve will doubtless start slowing its bond-buyback program this fall because the financial system recovers as introduced in assembly minutes launched yesterday. S&P 500 futures fell 0.72% to $4,362.75 ultimately look.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 8/19/2021
Contract Models Excessive Low Final Web Change % Change
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.605 5.56 5.57 -0.0475 -0.85%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.635 5.5725 5.585 -0.065 -1.15%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.7075 5.6475 5.655 -0.0675 -1.18%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.75 5.6975 5.6975 -0.07 -1.21%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.7475 5.6925 5.695 -0.065 -1.13%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.27 5.225 5.23 -0.0525 -0.99%
DEC ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.15 5.11 5.115 -0.0425 -0.82%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.58 13.4 13.41 -0.1725 -1.27%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.5175 13.335 13.3525 -0.18 -1.33%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.5525 13.38 13.3925 -0.18 -1.33%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.53 13.3675 13.375 -0.165 -1.22%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.505 13.3775 13.3775 -0.15 -1.11%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4775 13.35 13.355 -0.145 -1.07%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.3 13.205 13.205 -0.1525 -1.14%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.87 #N/A 12.9225 0 0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6 12.4975 12.5075 -0.1075 -0.85%
SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 61.9 60.73 60.84 -1.09 -1.76%
OCT ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 61.46 60.25 60.37 -1.17 -1.90%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 357.6 354.2 354.8 -2.8 -0.78%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 356.6 353 353.6 -3.2 -0.90%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 360 356.4 357 -3.3 -0.92%
JAN ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 360.2 357 357.5 -3.2 -0.89%
MAR ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 359.6 357.2 357.8 -2.6 -0.72%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.37 7.2575 7.2625 -0.11 -1.49%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.51 7.4 7.41 -0.1025 -1.36%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.645 7.535 7.5375 -0.1025 -1.34%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.655 7.5625 7.5625 -0.1075 -1.40%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.3025 7.2 7.2025 -0.1075 -1.47%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.2275 7.1025 7.1175 -0.12 -1.66%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.355 7.23 7.24 -0.1275 -1.73%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.4325 7.32 7.3225 -0.1325 -1.78%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.43 7.365 7.365 -0.0975 -1.31%
JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.13 7.06 7.06 -0.12 -1.67%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.2575 9.18 9.18 -0.05 -0.54%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.145 9.06 9.065 -0.045 -0.49%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.03 8.9575 8.97 -0.0325 -0.36%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.8725 8.85 8.8625 -0.0325 -0.37%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.7325 #N/A 8.7375 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 93.515 93.215 93.335 0.191 0.21%
 SE ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  64.76 62.83 63.11 -2.35 -3.59%
 OC ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  64.57 62.66 62.94 -2.27 -3.48%
SEP ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.0076 1.9555 1.9643 -0.0569 -2.82%
OCT ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.0108 1.9589 1.9683 -0.0563 -2.78%
SEP ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1384 2.0836 2.0897 -0.058 -2.70%
OCT ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.0062 1.9517 1.9571 -0.0591 -2.93%
AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 158.85 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 163.35 0 0.00%
 AU ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 124.025 0 0.00%
 OC ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 129.05 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 89.1 0 0.00%
DEC ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 82.125 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.05 16.05 16.05 -0.14 -0.86%
SEP ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.13 17.13 17.13 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.12 17.08 17.08 -0.04 -0.23%

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