Wheat costs combined on a stronger greenback, tightening world provides
- Corn down 1-3 cents
- Soybeans up 1-5 cents, soymeal down $1.10/ton, soyoil down $0.32/lb
- Chicago wheat up 1 cent, Kansas Metropolis wheat down 1 cent; Minneapolis wheat up 5-7 cents
*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.
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Corn futures are on tempo to inch again up after yesterday’s losses. Yesterday’s market selloff was triggered largely by components outdoors agricultural manufacturing. For a deeper dive on these macro influences, take a look at our newest Midweek Markets podcast.
Corn futures wavered inside a penny between the purple and inexperienced in in a single day buying and selling as recent crop tour experiences pointed to above common yields in high producer Iowa. Favorable climate situations this weekend and a stronger greenback will seemingly restrict corn’s upward value mobility in right now’s buying and selling session, until favorable export bulletins are made to assist raise costs.
USDA releases Cattle on Feed numbers right now. Amid hovering feed costs and protracted drought situations within the West, count on right now’s report to point out a continuation of the liquidation cycle producers have been going through this summer time as revenue margins proceed to tighten.
Extra favorable export news yesterday helped prop up features within the soy advanced this morning. Soybean futures drifted $0.01-$0.04/bushel larger this morning on export optimism, although features had been capped by bettering climate forecasts this weekend and excessive yield expectations from high producing states Illinois and Indiana.
China’s soybean importing paces from Brazil slowed for a second consecutive month in July as tight crush margins triggered demand rationing by home processors. China solely imported 289.5 million bushels of soybeans in July 2021 from Brazil, down 3.7% from July 2020 volumes.
China had imported report volumes from Brazil and Argentina earlier within the advertising yr as its hog herd quickly returned to pre-African Swine Fever (ASF) volumes. However going through a glut of hogs available on the market, Chinese language hog costs have declined and with it so has soybean feed demand.
Chinese language soy crushers noticed margins hit new lows in late June, although prospects have barely recovered since then. Nonetheless, it’s estimated that soy processors nonetheless stand to lose practically $0.74 per each bushel of soybeans which might be crushed. Elevated wheat feed utilization might additional threaten Chinese language soy demand within the coming months.
Harvest is simply across the nook and Complete Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm has a couple of key insights for farmers seeking to kick off 2021/22 advertising plans early this yr. Blohm recommends making the most of excessive harvest costs and reserving money gross sales aggressively headed into harvest.
“Also review the various futures and options strategies you can use to protect unpriced bushels should prices fall lower (either due to lower demand or a slight increase in yield on the next USDA report),” Blohm explains within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.
Blohm gives a pair methods to guard money gross sales, together with ahead contracting, hedge-to-arrive contracts, shopping for a put choice to create a value ground, implementing a “fence,” and a bear put unfold. “Whatever your strategy, make sure it works for you, that you understand it, and you’re comfortable with it. Preparation is key to marketing, and by pre-planning and being prepared, you’ll be many steps ahead of most,” Blohm concludes.
Wheat costs had been combined this morning. Chicago futures traded practically a penny larger whereas Kansas Metropolis futures drifted a penny decrease amid a rallying greenback.
Minneapolis futures gained $0.05-$0.07/bushel as harvest exercise approaches an finish within the Northern Plains. Heavy rains anticipated within the area right now is not going to seemingly play a big function to bettering yields at this level, although it might set off harvest delays and injury what few crops stay standing.
The French gentle wheat harvest is about to wrap up for the yr. French farm workplace, FranceAgriMer, launched recent crop progress information in a single day exhibiting that as of August 16, 91% of soppy wheat crops have been harvested, up practically 20% from the earlier week on favorable harvesting situations. Premature and heavy summer time rains have delayed harvesting progress relative to a yr prior. France is the biggest wheat producer within the European Union, which is the world’s second largest exporter behind Russia.
Dry fields presently being harvested in Russia are main the world’s high wheat exporter to supply among the highest high quality wheat of the season. USDA minimize Russian yield forecasts by 459 million bushels in final week’s WASDE report back to 2.66 billion bushels as a summer time drought restricted yield potential for the nation’s wheat crop.
However the warmth stress has been proven to spice up protein ranges in crops harvested throughout Russia, regardless of the smaller volumes. Issues about Russian wheat’s gluten power this yr might improve the attractiveness of U.S. and Canadian wheat on the world market, however the larger protein readings from Russia’s wheat crop this yr might herald premiums for exporters.
“We expect a harvest of exceptional quality this season,” BIO-TON Agri Corp, a big Russian wheat grower in Russia’s southern Volga area, informed Reuters. The farm reported 14.5% protein content material in its wheat harvest this yr – the best because the farm started in 1984.
Rains and cooler temperatures are on the way in which to the Northern Plains and Higher Midwest this weekend, in keeping with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. After peaking within the 90’s right now, count on temperatures within the 70s and 80s by tomorrow as rain clouds assist cool off drought-plagued areas of the Higher Midwest.
Scattered showers will stretch alongside the Plains tonight, shifting east throughout the Mississippi River by tomorrow afternoon. As much as an inch of precipitation is anticipated alongside the Mississippi River Valley within the subsequent 24 hours, with some areas of the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies seeing as much as three inches of rain in the identical time interval.
The most recent Drought Monitor information launched by the College of Nebraska yesterday noticed nationwide drought situations inch up barely by 0.06%, with 56.28% of U.S. acreage now in some type of abnormally dry to distinctive drought situation.
A big swath of the Western U.S. (40.16%) is classed as being in an excessive to distinctive drought. Within the Excessive Plains, 78.04% of land is in abnormally dry to distinctive drought situation.
Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, sitting on the Colorado River, is now solely 35% full. That’s the bottom capability the lake has sat at because it was constructed in 1931-1936 in the course of the Nice Melancholy and can seemingly set off water shortages throughout Colorado, Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and California.
About 37% of anticipated 2021 U.S. corn acreage is presently being produced in an space experiencing a drought. For soybeans, that space is 31%. At 99%, just about all spring wheat manufacturing within the U.S. is presently in drought.
Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 37,296,811 circumstances as of this morning in keeping with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The demise toll elevated to 625,183 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated in opposition to the virus.
Based on the CDC, practically 73% of U.S. adults have acquired not less than one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist increase immunity charges. Practically 170 million People (51%) are absolutely vaccinated. Over 4.8 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.
Asian shares retreated in a single day as information of a Chinese language regulatory crunch for its expertise firms damped market outlooks throughout the globe. Within the U.S., shares drifted decrease on the information with S&P 500 futures slated to erase its August features, acquired largely from a powerful second quarter earnings season on Wall Road.
A deliberate lower of Federal Reserve presence within the markets within the coming months because the pandemic subsides in addition to rising COVID-19 infections and slower progress in China all weighed on U.S. markets in a single day, sending the S&P 500 index 0.37% decrease to $4,385.00. Vitality costs continued their hunch as properly, with U.S. candy crude costs down 0.7% in pre-market buying and selling, hitting a three-month low.
|Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 8/20/2021|
|Contract||Items||Excessive||Low||Final||Internet Change||% Change|
|SEP ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.5425||5.5025||5.5025||0.0025||0.05%|
|DEC ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.5425||5.495||5.4975||-0.01||-0.18%|
|MAR ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.615||5.57||5.5725||-0.01||-0.18%|
|MAY ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.655||5.6175||5.6175||-0.01||-0.18%|
|JUL ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.6375||5.6075||5.6125||-0.0025||-0.04%|
|SEP ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.1875||5.16||5.1775||0.005||0.10%|
|DEC ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.1125||5.0725||5.09||0.01||0.20%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.3725||13.2275||13.2575||0.0275||0.21%|
|NOV ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.335||13.1925||13.2225||0.0225||0.17%|
|JAN ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.38||13.2375||13.2675||0.0225||0.17%|
|MAR ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.38||13.2425||13.27||0.0275||0.21%|
|MAY ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.3825||13.2475||13.2925||0.0475||0.36%|
|JUL ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.36||13.2425||13.275||0.04||0.30%|
|AUG ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.18||13.155||13.155||0.0475||0.36%|
|SEP ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.8||#N/A||12.6975||0||0.00%|
|NOV ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.525||12.375||12.4525||0.045||0.36%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||61.6||60.52||61.05||0.45||0.74%|
|OCT ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||61.05||59.96||60.44||0.39||0.65%|
|SEP ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||353.3||350.9||351||-0.5||-0.14%|
|OCT ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||352||349.5||349.7||-0.7||-0.20%|
|DEC ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||355.2||352.7||352.8||-0.8||-0.23%|
|JAN ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||355.5||353.7||353.7||-0.3||-0.08%|
|MAR ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||355.9||354.4||354.4||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.3275||7.2275||7.29||0.015||0.21%|
|DEC ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.4775||7.3775||7.4375||0.01||0.13%|
|MAR ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.6075||7.515||7.575||0.0125||0.17%|
|MAY ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.645||7.555||7.615||0.0125||0.16%|
|JUL ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.3||7.2175||7.2675||0.01||0.14%|
|SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.1875||7.1175||7.1575||0.0025||0.03%|
|DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.3175||7.245||7.2775||-0.005||-0.07%|
|MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.4025||7.335||7.4||0.0275||0.37%|
|MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.42||7.3575||7.39||0||0.00%|
|JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.145||7.11||7.125||-0.01||-0.14%|
|SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.265||9.1725||9.24||0.07||0.76%|
|DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.125||9.0325||9.1||0.055||0.61%|
|MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.01||8.945||9.0025||0.055||0.61%|
|MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.885||#N/A||8.845||0||0.00%|
|JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.72||#N/A||8.7||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index||$||93.7||93.525||93.68||0.092||0.10%|
|SE ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||64.1||63.17||63.25||-0.44||-0.69%|
|OC ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||64.04||62.92||63.14||-0.36||-0.57%|
|SEP ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||1.971||1.9354||1.9397||-0.0293||-1.49%|
|OCT ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||1.9734||1.9376||1.9415||-0.0299||-1.52%|
|SEP ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.1384||2.037||2.0445||-0.037||-1.78%|
|OCT ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.0062||1.9107||1.9178||-0.0347||-1.78%|
|AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||158.275||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||162.9||0||0.00%|
|AU ’21 Dwell Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||123.4||0||0.00%|
|OC ’21 Dwell Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||128.15||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Dwell Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||86.925||0||0.00%|
|DEC ’21 Dwell Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||80.55||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||16.02||#N/A||16.03||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.17||#N/A||17.11||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.05||17.05||17.05||-0.03||-0.18%|
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