Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for August 25, 2021

Morning Market Review for August 25, 2021

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A stronger greenback triggers losses, that are capped by issues about tightening provides

  • Corn down 1-2 cents
  • Soybeans down 3-7 cents, soymeal down $1.10/ton, soyoil down $0.04/lb
  • Chicago & Kansas Metropolis wheat down 5-10 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 1 cent

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning!  The primary guess at nationwide yields are in for 2021. How are crops holding out in your area? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop situations. Our Google Map, up to date day by day, supplies all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the newest farmer feedback from across the nation.

Corn

It was a quiet buying and selling session final evening, with corn costs down $0.01-$0.02/bushel finally look on a continued spherical of profit-taking. A selloff was largely averted after Monday’s report of falling corn situation rankings throughout the Midwest from USDA.

Ethanol information due out at the moment from the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) will present a primary have a look at how U.S. gas consumption will shift as college resumes throughout the nation. Final week’s Petroleum Stock Standing report noticed weekly ethanol manufacturing volumes dip to the bottom stage since late April 2021.

Easing shopper demand for gasoline over the previous few weeks as summer season holidays wind down and colleges return to session has hindered ethanol output throughout the Corn Belt. Weekly gasoline utilization charges have fallen 4.5% over the previous two reporting weeks, triggering smaller ethanol mixing volumes from refiners.

Whereas gas consumption stays increased than through the peak of the pandemic a yr in the past, gas utilization charges have struggled to persistently return to pre-pandemic ranges this summer season. Summertime 2021 gas consumption is 3% decrease than the identical interval in 2019.

If this development retains up as harvest season approaches, growers might must look past the native ethanol plant for worthwhile foundation pricing alternatives. Export terminals might present extra pricing choices this fall for growers trying to promote bushels off the mix.

Volatility has dominated the markets over the previous yr and a half. Farm Futures contributing analyst Bryce Knorr means that futures market costs for grains will doubtless stay uneven for the foreseeable future. However what’s subsequent?

“With corn and soybean futures struggling, traders appear to be bracing for an increase in both crops’ yields in the Sept. 10 update from USDA. Historically speaking, changes from August are the rule, not the exception,” Knorr observes within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.

Knorr factors out that there are solely two occasions prior to now 56 years the place USDA left September yield estimates unchanged from August. “Corn yields went up 28 years and down 26 years, with most of the changes in a band from five bushels per acre either side on the August estimate.”

Be ready for extra market turbulence, Knorr cautions. “All these patterns suggest traders looking for a clear trend to trade as crops mature will likely be disappointed until 2021 crops are safely tucked away in storage and more is known about demand.”

Such surprises don’t come often but increase the difficulty of plotting storage strategies for growers,” Knorr concludes.

Soybeans

Soybean costs additionally took a slight hit from profit-takers in a single day, falling $0.03-$0.07/bushel. Soybeans posted the most important day by day acquire since late June 2021 as crop situations and chronic dryness exacerbated issues about provide availability within the coming months. Losses have been restricted by issues about grain flows in South America, the place the La Niña-induced drought has slowed navigation on the Parana River.

As one other La Niña cycle looms within the shadows this fall, corn and soy growers in Argentina are weighing rising prices of transportation in opposition to manufacturing prospects for the 2021/22 rising season. The previous yr’s La Niña occasion resulted in dryness in South America, which left the Parana River at file low ranges.

The Parana River is the primary transport artery for Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay’s grain flows. La Niña-induced drought dropped the river to ranges unfit for cargo ships to traverse by means of the channel, elevating transport prices in the end handed on to farmers within the area.

“At best it could become normal in some areas. But a return to normal rainfall will not correct the flow of the river, which is going to have an extremely serious effect on shipping logistics, hydroelectric power generation, and the provision of drinking water,” German Heinzenknecht, a meteorologist at Argentine consultancy Utilized Climatology, instructed Reuters.

Argentina vegetation its corn and soybean crop in September and October. The Rosario Grains Trade believes La Niña might scale back rainfall in Argentina by 20%-30% this yr, which is main some growers to already downgrade 2021 yield forecasts.

Grain exports are a crucial income for the Argentine authorities. The South American nation is the world’s largest soymeal exporter and the world’s third largest corn and soybean exporter.

Wheat

Wheat costs fell because the greenback strengthened in a single day. Revenue-taking was the important thing perpetrator although ongoing issues about tightening exportable provides on the planet’s prime wheat shippers prevented a bigger selloff.

Germany’s 2021 wheat crop is simply anticipated to register at 785 million bushels, down 3.6% on the yr in accordance with the German agricultural ministry. A turbulent rising season restricted the yr’s yields. Germany is the European Union’s second largest wheat producer, behind France. The E.U. is the world’s second largest wheat exporter.

Climate

Temperatures will cool throughout the Higher Midwest at the moment, in accordance with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Showers are more likely to pop up throughout the Higher Plains and Japanese Corn Belt at the moment. Most affected areas will see comparatively gentle accumulation, although a handful of areas might see as much as three quarters of an inch of accumulation.

Wind gusts might attain as much as 30 miles an hour in western South Dakota at the moment. Nonetheless, it would doubtless be a considerably much less windy day than yesterday throughout the U.S. Plains.

Financials

Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 38,077,523 circumstances as of this morning in accordance with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The loss of life toll elevated to 630,838 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated in opposition to the virus.

Based on the CDC, over 73% of U.S. adults have acquired no less than one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist enhance immunity charges. Over 171 million People (52%) are absolutely vaccinated. Over 5.0 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Local weather change is a subject excessive on everybody’s minds proper now on the heels of a turbulent 2021 crop rising cycle. A current University of Illinois study means that the impacts of local weather change to agriculture might range broadly within the coming years.

“Early studies would assume one additional degree of Celsius or Fahrenheit in Arizona will have the exact same effect on agriculture as one additional degree in Illinois,” Sandy Dall’Erba, agricultural economist at U of I and research co-author explains.

Dall’Erba recommends utilizing county-level information to create new strategies to fight local weather change. The county information can’t solely establish drawback areas, but in addition assist create extra progressive alternatives to attenuate people’ carbon footprint.

Farmers are already nice stewards of the surroundings. Dall’Erba’s analysis means that homing in on on-farm administration strategies will help farmers to turn into the main actors for decreasing local weather change.

The way forward for U.S. tax legal guidelines is without doubt one of the highest issues for U.S. farmers at the moment. However Subsequent Gen Ag Advocates’ Mike Downey needs you to know there are assets to assist navigate by means of the uncertainty.

Within the newest More than Dirt column, Downey affords readers an unique have a look at workshops hosted by Subsequent Gen Ag Advocates that may assist your farm to create an optimum tax technique for the approaching years.

U.S. inventory markets hit recent highs in yesterday’s buying and selling session, although in a single day markets appeared much less sure about persevering with the rally. It was the S&P 500’s 50th file excessive shut of 2021. Buying and selling will doubtless proceed to stay muted at the moment as buyers await recent insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, following the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Gap. S&P 500 futures shed 0.07% to $4,479.50.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 8/25/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Internet Change % Change
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.46 5.4125 5.4425 -0.0025 -0.05%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.4675 5.41 5.4375 -0.015 -0.28%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.5375 5.4825 5.5075 -0.015 -0.27%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.58 5.5275 5.5525 -0.015 -0.27%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.5675 5.5125 5.54 -0.0125 -0.23%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.1825 5.15 5.1825 -0.005 -0.10%
DEC ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.085 5.06 5.0725 -0.015 -0.29%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.395 13.29 13.3725 0.0025 0.02%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.33 13.22 13.2725 -0.045 -0.34%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.38 13.2725 13.33 -0.0375 -0.28%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.39 13.29 13.35 -0.035 -0.26%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4125 13.32 13.3875 -0.025 -0.19%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.43 13.325 13.4 -0.02 -0.15%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.25 13.2225 13.2275 -0.0675 -0.51%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.8925 #N/A 12.91 0 0.00%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.68 12.6 12.67 -0.005 -0.04%
SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 61.27 60.59 61.04 -0.05 -0.08%
OCT ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 60.7 60.08 60.46 -0.15 -0.25%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 355.4 352.3 354.8 -0.1 -0.03%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 353.1 350 353.1 0.3 0.09%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 356 353 355.4 -0.3 -0.08%
JAN ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 356.2 353.1 355.7 -0.1 -0.03%
MAR ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 358.4 353.9 356.3 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.1975 7.0625 7.0925 -0.0875 -1.22%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.34 7.2075 7.2375 -0.085 -1.16%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.4725 7.3425 7.3725 -0.0825 -1.11%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.5175 7.39 7.4225 -0.08 -1.07%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.205 7.095 7.125 -0.08 -1.11%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.07 6.9775 7 -0.0425 -0.60%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.2 7.1025 7.125 -0.0475 -0.66%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.2775 7.1925 7.2075 -0.0525 -0.72%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.3025 7.2175 7.23 -0.0525 -0.72%
JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.09 7.0375 7.0375 -0.05 -0.71%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.345 9.305 9.31 0.0025 0.03%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.145 9.0875 9.0975 -0.01 -0.11%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.9975 8.94 8.9575 0 0.00%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.845 8.845 8.845 0.0225 0.26%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.665 #N/A 8.6475 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 93.08 92.89 93.06 0.159 0.17%
 OC ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  67.8 66.92 67.7 0.16 0.24%
 NO ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  67.49 66.63 67.4 0.15 0.22%
SEP ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.0815 2.0523 2.0813 0.0145 0.70%
OCT ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.0841 2.0548 2.0831 0.0137 0.66%
SEP ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.2053 2.1702 2.2048 0.024 1.10%
OCT ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.0784 2.0452 2.0779 0.0203 0.99%
AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 158.575 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 165.775 0 0.00%
 AU ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 125.8 0 0.00%
 OC ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 131.7 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 86.975 0 0.00%
DEC ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 80.775 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.03 #N/A 16.04 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.41 #N/A 17.38 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.3 17.3 17.3 0.01 0.06%

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