Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for August 3, 2021

Morning Market Review for August 3, 2021

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Spring wheat falls on rankings enchancment

  • Corn down 2-5 cents
  • Soybeans down 15-20 cents, soymeal down $1.20/ton, soyoil down $0.62/lb
  • Chicago & Kansas Metropolis wheat down 2-4 cents; Minneapolis wheat down 6-10 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT

Good Morning!  Extra average temperatures are on the horizon for the Corn Belt. How are your crops surviving the warmth? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop circumstances. Our Google Map, up to date day by day, gives all previous responses for farm readers. Take a look at our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the latest farmer feedback from across the nation.

Corn: Corn costs fell $0.02-$0.06/bushel decrease this morning as merchants started to query the justification for larger costs as extra favorable climate over the Midwest allowed for extra optimum crop growth in key reproductive phases over the previous couple weeks.

“Grains and oilseed prices had rallied on the back of production concerns but now we have to see if these high prices are sustainable or not,” Phin Ziebell, an agribusiness economist at Nationwide Australia Financial institution in Melbourne, informed Reuters this morning.

Commodity markets have been additionally cautious of the spreading Delta variant throughout the nation this morning, in addition to an uptick in instances in China. “People are eating out less as COVID-19 cases are rising again. China is a big feed grain consumer and it is witnessing an increase in cases,” mentioned Ziebell.

USDA’s Crop Progress report launched yesterday night noticed corn situation rankings slip 2% decrease on the week to 62% good to wonderful for the week ending August 1. Common analyst predictions have been barely larger at 63%, although the commerce guesses ranged between 62%-65% good to wonderful.

Pollination is just about full throughout the Corn Belt, as nationwide silking charges stood at 91% full as of Sunday. About 38% of the crop had reached the doughing part by Sunday, up 20% from every week prior and 5% larger than the five-year common.

Ethanol manufacturing continues to recuperate from pandemic lows at higher than anticipated charges, in line with recent corn consumption for ethanol knowledge launched yesterday by USDA. USDA elevated Might 2021 corn utilization charges by 1.3 million bushels to 448.9 million bushels after revising utilization charges at dry mill vegetation larger for the prior month.

Nonetheless, ethanol manufacturing stalled in June as vitality markets tailored to altering shopper gasoline demand patterns. USDA estimates 439.9 million bushels of corn have been milled for ethanol manufacturing in June 2021, down barely from Might’s complete however nonetheless the second largest month-to-month quantity of the 2020/21 advertising yr as drivers returned to the roads within the post-pandemic journey rush.

Advertising and marketing yr up to now (MYTD) corn consumption for ethanol manufacturing is now 3.6% larger than volumes posted the identical time a yr in the past because the nation emerges from pandemic restrictions. However ethanol manufacturing isn’t within the clear but.

As many workplaces proceed distant actions and lingering pandemic fears stay, shopper gasoline demand has not but returned to pre-pandemic ranges. As of June, MYTD corn volumes consumed for ethanol remained 7% decrease than the identical interval in 2018/19, suggesting there’s nonetheless some financial therapeutic to be accomplished earlier than the results of the pandemic might be forgotten.

Enjoyable Truth: Month-to-month corn consumption for beverage alcohol plateaued at 3.7 million bushels in June 2021. Whilst pandemic restrictions have lifted and extra persons are overtly socializing in public, month-to-month corn utilization charges for booze manufacturing has largely stalled between 3.7 million – 3.9 million bushels since March 2021.

All of which leads me to imagine Shot Girl Summer is an entire conspiracy principle invented by White Claw to reclaim their seltzer market share from up and coming opponents. Sure – that’s my skilled opinion, of us. And right here’s the information to show it.

Jacquie Holland

Again to Enterprise: Brazil was the world’s third largest corn exporter in 2020/21 and would be the second largest within the 2021/22 advertising yr. However in 2020/21, the South American grains producer will truly see record-setting corn imports, writes AgBravo CEO Julio Bravo.

Within the newest South American Crop Watch column, Bravo explains {that a} harvest shortfall on account of warmth stress, premature rains, and planting delays left the Brazilian corn crop 58% decrease than forecasts earlier this yr. And as home utilization and export charges rise, Brazil finds itself seeking to different nations to fulfill home consumption charges.

Bravo estimates Brazil will import 157 million bushels of corn in 2020/21, which might be the very best quantity for the nation up to now 59 years. Its exports will shrink by over a fifth from the prior yr as markets attempt to present home customers with sufficient shares to keep up present consumption ranges.

Soybeans: Soybean costs tumbled $0.13-$0.19/bushel decrease this morning on favorable climate circumstances and rising worldwide COVID-19 issues in China and the U.S. Lowered palm oil manufacturing estimates helped cap losses for the soyoil advanced, although costs nonetheless fell on decrease underlying soybean futures losses.

Soybean situation rankings improved on this week’s Crop Progress report, a good signal as crops enter peak reproductive phases over the subsequent couple weeks. As of August 1, 60% of 2021 soybeans have been in good to wonderful situation, up 2% from the earlier week. The ranking was on the larger finish of commerce predictions, which ranged between 54%-60% for this week’s report.

About 58% of U.S. soybean acres in 2021 have started setting pods as of August 1, a 16%-increase from every week prior and 6% above the five-year common. The following two weeks shall be essential for pod growth.

June 2021 soybean crush charges fell to the smallest quantity in two years as extra processors scheduled upkeep downtime in June 2021 within the wake of excessive soybean enter prices and dwindling countryside provides to proceed manufacturing.

USDA’s month-to-month crush report launched yesterday afternoon noticed 161.7 million bushels of soybeans crushed in June 2021, the bottom of the 2020/21 advertising yr. There have been few surprises to merchants, who had predicted the June crush between 161.4 million – 163.1 million bushels with a mean guess of 162.1 million bushels.

Jacquie HollandU.S. monthly soybean crush volume chart

As soybean inputs proceed to be scarce, don’t be shocked if month-to-month crush charges proceed to sink to low ranges. 5 of the seven largest month-to-month soybean crush volumes have been recorded earlier within the 2020/21 advertising yr, however these volumes additionally competed towards an traditionally aggressive export market following a back-to-back rising seasons of brief U.S. soybean manufacturing.

With USDA’s anticipated updates to 2021 yield estimates in subsequent week’s Crop Manufacturing report, markets are making ready for a rising cycle that includes wildly variable yield and harvested acreage estimates in 2021.

Advance Buying and selling’s Brian Basting factors out that over the past 30 years, USDA’s common yield estimates for the ultimate crop yr’s manufacturing have are available in both 2.2 bushels per acre (bpa) above the August forecast or 1.6 bpa beneath the metric. Soybeans might see extra variability this yr, Basting writes, as larger anticipated harvested acres this yr might tilt the availability scales by almost 50 million bushels both method.

“Uncertainty about yields this year is quite high given extremely divergent crop conditions across the country,” Basting speculates within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column. “History shows soybean yields can still change significantly before harvest. Plus, there is heightened uncertainty about the possibility of additional double crop soybean acreage in relation to the USDA’s most recent projection.”

At any price, count on subsequent week’s USDA studies to trigger fairly a little bit of market uproar following their launch.

Wheat: The uptick in situation rankings and harvest progress for spring wheat in yesterday’s Crop Progress report despatched Minneapolis futures $0.06-$0.10/bushel decrease this morning. Chicago and Kansas Metropolis futures shed $0.02-$0.04/bushel in a single day in a spherical of profit-taking after brushing a three-month excessive in yesterday’s buying and selling session. A weaker greenback additionally helped to curb losses within the wheat advanced this morning.

Winter wheat harvest continues to shift additional into the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest. As of Sunday, 91% of winter wheat acreage had been harvested, up 7% from the week earlier than and according to analyst expectations. Harvest charges in each state proceed to advance forward of the five-year common as dry climate gives favorable combining circumstances.

Spring wheat harvest exercise is off to a speedy begin amid a sweltering drought within the Northern Plains. As of August 1, 17% of the 2021 U.S. wheat crop had been harvested, representing a staggering 14%-increase from every week prior.

The ranking shocked market analysts, who had predicted spring wheat harvest exercise at 11% forward of the Crop Progress report’s launch yesterday. The devastating drought additionally led some farmers to desert fields, additionally contributing to a sooner harvest tempo. The five-year common harvest completion price for the identical reporting interval stands at 8%.

Spring wheat circumstances noticed a 1% weekly enchancment, rising to 10% good to wonderful for the week ending August 1. Whereas the motion got here as a shock to commerce watchers, who have been anticipated a 1% weekly decline in situation rankings, as farmers within the Northern Plains enter in to peak harvest exercise, the rankings discrepancy doubtless issues little or no. The crop is kind of completed at this level with little hopes for yield or high quality enhancements amid the historic drought.

Corn and soybean growers could also be shocked to know that they lack the assist from wheat growers within the rising biofuels enlargement debate. The American Bakers Affiliation (ABA), a lobbying group representing meals companies together with Kroger and Krispy Kreme, pleaded with the Environmental Safety Company (EPA) final week to curb gasoline mixing mandates.

The ABA argues that growing biofuel manufacturing in an period of tightening international grain provides might increase the value of meals merchandise, doubtlessly limiting buyer demand for these merchandise. Rising soy and canola oil costs amid international shortages additionally threaten to extend the value of products produced by corporations represented by the ABA. About 40% of soyoil produced within the U.S. is utilized in biodiesel manufacturing whereas the rest is utilized by the meals manufacturing trade.

Although the rise has doubtless already occurred, in line with knowledge from the U.S. Labor Division’s Bureau of Statistics. Common meals costs within the U.S. had risen by 2.4% on the yr as of the top of June 2021.

USDA launched quarterly flour milling knowledge yesterday. For the fourth quarter within the 2020/21 wheat advertising yr spanning April by June 2021, wheat milled for flour totaled 223.3 million bushels, down 1.2 million bushels from the earlier quarter on decrease durum milling, which is finally utilized in pasta manufacturing.

Whole quarterly wheat milling charges rose 2% from the identical time a yr prior as pandemic shopping for anomalies have been smoothed out by the market. Fourth quarter wheat consumption for milling tends to be among the many lowest volumes of the yr, so yesterday’s report had little bearing on market costs.

However there could also be extra long-term traits at play right here. USDA revised January by March 2021 flour milling knowledge decrease by 6,000 bushels on smaller non-durum wheat milling charges. Regardless of indications that buyers most well-liked to proceed making ready baked items at dwelling within the pandemic’s aftermath, it seems the pandemic baking growth could also be displaying indicators of going bust.

Jacquie HollandChart of quarterly wheat milling

Climate: It is going to be one other day of clear skies and average temperatures throughout the Midwest in the present day, benefiting soybean crops amid essential reproductive phases this week, in line with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Scattered showers are attainable within the Nice Lakes area, although any accumulation is prone to be minimal.

It is going to be a windy day on the Plains, the place gusts might attain over 20 mph from South Dakota to Oklahoma.

Financials: Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose to 35,133,969 instances as of this morning in line with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The loss of life toll elevated to 613,758 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated towards the virus.

In accordance with the CDC, 70% of U.S. adults have obtained not less than one COVID-19 vaccine. Almost 165 million Individuals (50%) are totally vaccinated. Over 4.1 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Any CEO struggles to do a number of duties and be demanded in a number of locations directly. So how does a farmer CEO handle these calls for efficiently? Water Road Answer CEO Darren Frye shed some mild on that wrestle and presents farmers some suggestions for success within the newest Finance First column.

In in the present day’s digital age, Frye recommends taking a step again from seemingly pressing points to guage if these issues are definitely worth the chief’s focus. “It’s true that there will be some necessary firefighting, and the leader will have to pause whatever else they are doing at the moment and solve the problem,” Frye sympathizes with growers.

“The problem is this: Leaders can start to pay attention primarily to urgent items simply because they are in front of them, rather than stepping back to first ask whether that urgent thing is also important to the farm operation and whether it’s important that the leader address it themselves or not.”

U.S. inventory futures ticked up this morning on optimism over company earnings outcomes anticipated from second quarter monetary statements being launched over the approaching days. S&P 500 futures rose 0.36% to $4,395.50 on the sentiment.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 8/3/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Internet Change % Change
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.5675 5.5225 5.5275 -0.06 -1.07%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.575 5.5325 5.5425 -0.05 -0.89%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.65 5.6125 5.62 -0.0525 -0.93%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.695 5.66 5.6675 -0.05 -0.87%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.6975 5.66 5.675 -0.045 -0.79%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.21 5.1725 5.2025 -0.02 -0.38%
DEC ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.0475 5.0125 5.0175 -0.035 -0.69%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.12 14.04 14.06 -0.1275 -0.90%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.5025 13.375 13.3775 -0.185 -1.36%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.48 13.35 13.3525 -0.1825 -1.35%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.53 13.4025 13.4025 -0.1825 -1.34%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4775 13.37 13.3725 -0.1575 -1.16%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4525 13.3525 13.3525 -0.1575 -1.17%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.45 13.3275 13.3325 -0.16 -1.19%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.275 13.22 13.2575 -0.07 -0.53%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6975 #N/A 12.905 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 64.15 #N/A 64.62 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 64.05 62.89 62.89 -0.82 -1.29%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 356 356 356 -1.2 -0.34%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 355.5 352.3 352.8 -3.6 -1.01%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 355 352.1 352.2 -3.7 -1.04%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 358.7 355.6 355.7 -3.9 -1.08%
JAN ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 359.2 356.8 356.8 -3.9 -1.08%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.28 7.2125 7.2375 -0.0575 -0.79%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.38 7.3125 7.3375 -0.055 -0.74%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.4575 7.39 7.4175 -0.0525 -0.70%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.43 7.3775 7.4 -0.0525 -0.70%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.195 7.13 7.165 -0.0525 -0.73%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.0475 6.9525 7.0025 -0.0325 -0.46%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.1575 7.0625 7.1125 -0.035 -0.49%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.23 7.145 7.1875 -0.035 -0.48%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.2175 7.205 7.2175 -0.0125 -0.17%
JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.015 6.96 7 -0.0475 -0.67%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.2225 9.145 9.165 -0.0625 -0.68%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.11 9.02 9.04 -0.0725 -0.80%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.9575 8.8825 8.8825 -0.095 -1.06%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.8125 8.8025 8.8125 -0.0325 -0.37%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.585 8.585 8.585 -0.12 -1.38%
SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 92.09 91.895 91.93 -0.135 -0.15%
 SE ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  71.96 70.97 71.39 0.13 0.18%
 OC ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  71.29 70.33 70.77 0.16 0.23%
SEP ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1587 2.1317 2.1477 0.0119 0.56%
OCT ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1589 2.1336 2.1484 0.012 0.56%
SEP ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.3033 2.2727 2.2927 0.018 0.79%
OCT ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1622 2.1333 2.1528 0.0157 0.73%
AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 158.25 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 161.975 0 0.00%
 AU ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 122.125 0 0.00%
 OC ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 127.275 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 107.5 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 89.5 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.44 #N/A 16.46 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.22 16.12 16.12 0.01 0.06%
SEP ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.16 16.11 16.11 -0.04 -0.25%

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