Warmth and dryness within the forecast pull up the grains complicated in a single day
- Corn up 2-6 cents
- Soybeans up 8-17 cents, soymeal up $5.50/ton, soyoil up $0.54/lb
- Minneapolis wheat up 18-19 cents, Chicago &, Kansas Metropolis wheat up 14-16 cents
*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.
Good Morning! How a lot rain fell in your fields this week? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on crop progress at any level within the 2021 grain season. Our Google Map, up to date day by day, supplies all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the newest farmer feedback from across the nation.
After per week of sideways buying and selling, corn costs are set to finish the week on a excessive be aware because the complicated gained $0.02-$0.06/bushel in a single day on issues about yield potential within the Higher Midwest, which would depart growers within the east and south accountable for guaranteeing robust yields to offset the northern area’s losses. A scorching and dry forecast looming sooner or later added one other leg of assist for the corn complicated.
Revenue margins are snug for corn and growers as pollination ramps up throughout the Heartland. However with new crop costs slipping under eight-year highs recorded earlier in Might 2021, has the occasion ended for the brand new crop rally?
Not essentially. In my newest E-corn-omics column, I level out that even utilizing conservative break-even estimates, new crop corn costs are lots worthwhile for growers. So what’s subsequent for growers trying to make advertising and marketing strikes with a deal with the longer term?
enter costs have proven little signal of falling within the post-pandemic period. In Illinois, bi-weekly manufacturing prices for anhydrous ammonia are 49% larger than a yr in the past, standing at $726.67/ton based mostly on up to date worth data launched by USDA’s Illinois Department of Ag Market News Service.
Phosphate prices proceed to rise because the U.S. scrambles to supply sufficient of the nutrient forward of fall utility season, with Illinois DAP and MAP costs up 76% and 74%, respectively, over the previous yr.
Ready for bills to fall is a legitimate possibility for producers, however with present corn costs offering greater than sufficient flexibility for larger working prices plus snug proprietor returns, is it price it?
After all, revenue and pricing projections are dependent upon growers hitting yield forecasts, which has been more and more difficult over the previous three rising seasons. Don’t anticipate the market volatility surrounding tight corn and soybean provides or rising fertilizer prices in 2021 to go away.
Grain demand is more likely to stay excessive, although home utilization and export charges are more likely to be capped by restricted provides over the subsequent yr. Ahead gross sales can present a protected hedge towards excessive fertilizer costs – and peace of thoughts amidst an more and more risky international financial local weather.
Soybean costs recorded a considerable $0.08-$0.17/bushel acquire this morning on ongoing climate issues within the Higher Midwest. Subsequent week’s forecast has little rain and far warmth in retailer for the area, which is already combatting drought circumstances simply forward of peak pollination season.
The Nationwide Oilseed Producers Affiliation (NOPA) launched June 2021 soy crush estimates yesterday and the outcomes stunned analysts who underestimated upkeep downtime added to processors’ schedules amid excessive soybean costs and thinning countryside provides.
Analysts had estimated the June 2021 crush between 155.5 million – 163.0 million bushels with a median guess of 159.5 million bushels. However NOPA’s determine got here in at a two-year low of 152.4 million bushels.
It marked a 7% decline from the earlier month as crush crops took greater than anticipated time approach from regular productions. Some crops have been reported to be catching up on upkeep tasks delayed final summer time as a result of COVID-19 pandemic.
The decrease crush price means that soy crushers are more likely to hold crush charges at a low degree within the months main as much as this fall’s harvest as soybean costs stay excessive. NOPA members crush roughly 95% of all soybeans destined for processing amenities throughout the U.S.
As of market shut yesterday, costs for August 2021 soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Commerce have fallen 13% from mid-Might 2021 highs. Grain costs noticed a pointy selloff early final week, however Complete Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm isn’t nervous.
“The difference this year, is that there are now five grain and oilseed commodities with alarmingly tight ending stocks, and lower production numbers for this growing season,” Blohm explains, noting oats, canola, spring wheat, corn, and soybeans are all going through traditionally tight shares because the 2020/21 advertising and marketing yr inches to an in depth.
“I don’t ever remember a set up like this where five commodities are suddenly low on supplies for old crop and new crop, with whispers of lower global production as well.”
Blohm notes that November 2021 soybeans are buying and selling in a spread “where $14.50 is resistance and $13.00 is support.” Blohm expects the subsequent larger breakout vary shall be someplace above or under a $1.50/bushel worth transfer for new crop soybeans.
Will 2021 yield projections enable soybean costs to interrupt out of that vary? “If yield is estimated to be less than 50 bushels per acre, that would be a reason to justify November futures trading through $14.50 resistance, with an upward potential price target of $16.00 futures,” Blohm forecasts within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.
Wheat costs continued to rally in a single day, up $0.14-$0.19/bushel throughout all three main contracts. Chicago wheat will seemingly document its largest weekly acquire over the previous 4 years as climate hiccups in Europe threatened winter wheat manufacturing estimates.
Western Europe has skilled extreme rains, curbing high quality expectations for German and French crops. In the meantime, Russia’s key wheat-producing area within the south has fallen prey to scorching and dry circumstances in current weeks which is anticipated to decrease the nation’s last 2021 wheat manufacturing estimates.
Spring wheat futures broke previous the $9/bushel benchmark in a single day on persistent dry circumstances within the Northern Plains as many farmers consider the prices and diminishing advantages of harvesting a brief wheat crop. Good points within the wheat complicated have been capped by a stronger greenback.
Are you over the thrill within the wheat complicated from Monday’s Crop Manufacturing and WASDE reviews from USDA? Us neither! Try our newest Midweek Markets podcast, the place Ben Potter and I dig into what elements have impacted wheat costs this week.
Extra rain will fall over the Jap Corn Belt as we speak with the system seemingly lingering over the area by way of the weekend, in accordance with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. As much as two inches of accumulation over the subsequent 24 hours is anticipated from Jap Oklahoma to Western New York.
Temperatures will stay within the 80s in areas receiving showers as we speak, whereas areas outdoors the buildup will seemingly see the mercury rise into the 90s as clear skies prevail. Extra showers are anticipated throughout the Plains tomorrow and Sunday.
Up to date drought monitor information launched yesterday factored on this week’s showers throughout the Higher Midwest and served as a reminder that crop circumstances stay underneath stress as pollination ramps up within the Heartland.
Drought circumstances fell practically 2% on the week, as 55.8% of the nation lies in some type of abnormally dry or drought situation as of Tuesday. Drought circumstances within the Excessive Plains rose practically 4% on the week, with virtually 74% of the Plains going through warmth stress. Conversely, drought circumstances within the Midwest fell over 5% on the week to 40.4% due to final week’s showers.
In truth, 36% of anticipated 2021 corn acreage lies inside an space in drought. One other 31% of soybean acres are experiencing drought, whereas 95% of U.S. durum and 98% of spring wheat battle to develop amid extreme drought circumstances.
Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 33,977,713 circumstances as of this morning in accordance with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The loss of life toll elevated to 608,406 deaths as of press time.
Circumstances proceed to rise amongst unvaccinated Individuals because the delta variant surges by way of the nation. As of Sunday, confirmed COVID-19 circumstances had risen 47% on the week consequently. It marked the most important weekly improve in caseloads because the pandemic surged in April 2020.
In line with the CDC, practically 68% of U.S. adults have acquired at the least one COVID-19 vaccine. Over 160 million Individuals (48%) are totally vaccinated. Over 3.5 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.
U.S. shares edged larger in a single day on optimism anticipated from as we speak’s month-to-month retail gross sales information, which analysts hope to indicate optimistic sentiment as summer time spending ramps up. Nonetheless, many economists stay skeptical about client sentiment, worrying that as we speak’s report will see a second consecutive month-to-month decline in spending as shoppers pare again giant bills. S&P 500 futures rose 0.14% larger to $4,358.00 forward of the College of Michigan’s report.
|Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 7/16/2021|
|Contract||Items||Excessive||Low||Final||Web Change||% Change|
|SEP ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.6925||5.59||5.6875||0.045||0.80%|
|DEC ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.625||5.5125||5.6225||0.06||1.08%|
|MAR ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7||5.59||5.6975||0.0575||1.02%|
|MAY ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7425||5.635||5.7375||0.055||0.97%|
|JUL ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7375||5.64||5.735||0.0525||0.92%|
|SEP ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.1575||5.1275||5.1575||0.02||0.39%|
|DEC ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||4.995||4.9475||4.9925||0.0225||0.45%|
|AUG ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||14.64||14.44||14.64||0.165||1.14%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||14.1025||13.9175||14.1025||0.16||1.15%|
|NOV ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.95||13.77||13.945||0.145||1.05%|
|JAN ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.98||13.805||13.98||0.1475||1.07%|
|MAR ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.8||13.6275||13.8||0.1425||1.04%|
|MAY ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.7275||13.58||13.7275||0.13||0.96%|
|JUL ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.7||13.55||13.7||0.1325||0.98%|
|AUG ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.47||13.445||13.47||0.0775||0.58%|
|SEP ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.9525||#N/A||12.9725||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||67.89||66.94||67.89||0.58||0.86%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||66.45||65.58||66.45||0.55||0.83%|
|AUG ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||368.6||363.2||368.5||5.8||1.60%|
|SEP ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||368||362.7||367.8||5.6||1.55%|
|OCT ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||366.8||361.6||366.6||5.6||1.55%|
|DEC ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||370.1||364.6||370.1||6.3||1.73%|
|JAN ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||370||364.5||370||6.4||1.76%|
|SEP ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.8725||6.7075||6.8675||0.1475||2.19%|
|DEC ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.9375||6.7775||6.9325||0.145||2.14%|
|MAR ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.9975||6.8275||6.9975||0.14||2.04%|
|MAY ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.0225||6.835||7.0225||0.13||1.89%|
|JUL ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.9225||6.7625||6.9175||0.09||1.32%|
|SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.5425||6.375||6.5425||0.14||2.19%|
|DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.6525||6.485||6.6525||0.145||2.23%|
|MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.73||6.565||6.73||0.1425||2.16%|
|MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.755||6.6675||6.755||0.1275||1.92%|
|JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.655||6.535||6.645||0.0975||1.49%|
|SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.13||8.965||9.12||0.18||2.01%|
|DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9||8.8275||8.9875||0.1775||2.01%|
|MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.86||8.71||8.855||0.18||2.07%|
|MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.715||8.57||8.715||0.175||2.05%|
|JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.52||8.4||8.52||0.125||1.49%|
|SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index||$||92.72||92.53||92.685||0.054||0.06%|
|AU ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||72.28||71.13||71.78||0.13||0.18%|
|SE ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||72.01||70.87||71.51||0.13||0.18%|
|AUG ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.1286||2.1014||2.1141||0.0015||0.07%|
|SEP ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.1298||2.1034||2.1155||0.0014||0.07%|
|AUG ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.2638||2.2363||2.2505||0.0002||0.01%|
|SEP ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.2449||2.2176||2.2325||0.0007||0.03%|
|AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||157.375||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||159.225||0||0.00%|
|AU ’21 Reside Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||121.125||0||0.00%|
|OC ’21 Reside Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||126.525||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 Reside Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||104.3||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Reside Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||89.4||0||0.00%|
|JUL ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||16.73||#N/A||16.75||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||16.97||16.85||16.91||-0.07||-0.41%|
|SEP ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.28||#N/A||17.31||0||0.00%|