A quiet in a single day buying and selling session ends in skinny buying and selling ranges for grains
- Corn down 1-2 cents
- Soybeans down 6-10 cents, soymeal down $3.90/ton, soyoil up $0.64/lb
- Wheat up 2-5 cents
*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.
Completely satisfied Friday! How are your crops surviving the warmth? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop circumstances. Our Google Map, up to date each day, gives all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the latest farmer feedback from across the nation.
China bought 323K bushels of imported GMO corn from Ukraine at a state-sponsored public sale in a single day. There was much less competitors for the sale than in earlier weeks’ auctions, suggesting that Chinese language corn demand might be weakening as its freshly harvested wheat provides enter the availability chain.
Chicago futures edged $0.02-$0.03/bushel decrease this morning in consequence. Issues about U.S. livestock feed demand additionally performed into the morning’s losses.
USDA releases up to date Cattle on Feed knowledge this afternoon. The nation’s cattle stock, which began the yr out on a excessive be aware on regular client demand amid the pandemic, is probably going going to start to shrink as pastures within the West and Higher Midwest are rendered unfit for cattle resulting from drought circumstances and sky-high grain costs put the squeeze on cattle producers’ revenue margins.
Market analysts anticipate June 2021 feedlot placements to drop a staggering 4.1% from a yr prior because the cattle market weathers this newest liquidation part. The commerce expects June placements in at the moment’s report back to vary between 1.56 million – 1.81 million head with a median guess of 1.72 million head.
As such, anticipate June 2021 marketings to rise from the earlier month because the liquidation cycle ensues. Commerce estimates peg at the moment’s determine at 2.05 million head, with the market unlikely to see any important worth motion until the estimate is available in exterior of the anticipated 2.00 million – 2.11 million head vary.
Common guesses for complete U.S. cattle inventories are barely smaller than Might 2021 estimates, suggesting the nation’s breeding herd might be impacted tight grain provides, scorched pastures, and unsteady slaughtering speeds which have plagued livestock producers via 2021. Market analysts estimate at the moment’s Cattle on Feed quantity at 11.21 million head, although the ultimate tally is prone to vary between 10.96 million – 11.55 million head.
A smaller cattle herd may have bearish penalties for U.S. corn growers. Ethanol shares rose this week, suggesting blender demand will not be supportive of present manufacturing volumes, and corn export volumes thinned as countryside storage amenities start to run dry on 2020 provides. Whereas corn shares might finish the yr at a traditionally tight degree, these demand elements have to be intently monitored as the brand new advertising and marketing yr approaches.
Tight shares are good for U.S. corn growers, nevertheless it’s impacts can turn out to be rapidly muted if utilization charges reasonable in response to greater costs.
Soybean futures traded $0.06-$0.10/bushel decrease this morning on a continued spherical of profit-taking following climate rallies and ongoing considerations about potential Chinese language export demand for the 2021/22 transport season.
Complete Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm is conserving a detailed eye on a couple of main elements as July rolls to a detailed. Tight soybean shares, soybean crop growth, and climate forecasts within the Midwest are excessive on Blohm’s record, however so is recent flooding in Central China.
Whereas the Chinese language pig inhabitants returned to pre-ASF volumes this spring, the flood waters from current showers may unfold contaminated water, feed, and fecal matter to hog amenities the place the virus may infect extra herds.
The Henan province in Central China will not be solely the nation’s second-largest pork producer however can also be China’s largest wheat grower. Blohm notes that the province produces practically 30% of the nation’s complete wheat output and 10% of China’s corn crop within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column. The realm’s wheat harvest wrapped up upfront of the heavy showers, although analysts have voiced considerations about storage high quality points because the rain accumulates.
Ought to points come up resulting from flooding, U.S. grain exports might be impacted. Control information about export gross sales or outbreaks of ASF reported within the Henan province. These would be the earliest indicators of the flood’s severity, because it impacts U.S. farmers.
The Rhine River reopened in Germany in a single day, releasing up grain and power flows in Western Europe. Issues about crop circumstances around the globe contributed to the morning’s features, which featured all the wheat advanced up $.02-$0.05/bushel, with features capped by a stronger greenback.
France’s mushy wheat harvest is delayed this yr. French mushy wheat rankings declined on current heavy rains, falling to 75% good or wonderful as solely 14% of the crop has been harvested. Two-thirds of the crop had been harvested a yr in the past, although smaller acreages and dry circumstances sped up harvesting paces for that season.
France is the European Union’s largest wheat producer. The EU is the world’s second largest wheat exporter.
As world climate woes proceed to boost considerations about world wheat provides, Farm Futures contributing analyst Bryce Knorr hints that one other yr of turbulent wheat-growing climate may come sooner fairly than later. Knorr factors out that whereas La Niña is on the way in which out, it may return once more this fall as ocean temperatures within the Central Pacific stay cooler than regular.
“While traders focus on U.S. production during the summer, export demand into 2022 could hinge on what happens from competitors around the world if La Niña returns as forecast,” Knorr explains a current Ag Marketing IQ column. “The La Niña cycle offers mixed prospects on that because correlations are significantly weaker in the second of these back-to-back years.”
“So while grain production this year could be affected in the Former Soviet Union, it’s less clear whether Argentina could also be in the crosshairs for both corn and soybeans next year. That uncertainty holds true for wheat and feed yields in Australia and Brazil’s soybean crop, which might not benefit as much from the cooler equatorial Pacific as they did in 2021.”
A warmth wave will proceed to blast the Corn Belt at the moment, in accordance with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Temperatures are anticipated to high 100 levels within the Plains. Scattered showers within the Northern Plains are anticipated to shift east into the Higher Midwest early within the weekend, bringing as much as an inch of accumulation to Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin over the subsequent 24 hours.
The early phases of a warmth wave haven’t but registered in the latest Drought Monitor’s update, although showers throughout the nation via final weekend diminished nationwide drought circumstances barely. For the week ending July 20, 54% of the nation stays in some form of abnormally dry to distinctive drought situation, a virtually 1% discount from the earlier week’s report.
The showers lifted drought circumstances within the Midwest practically 5% decrease to a 35.8% drought score, whereas 72% of acreage within the U.S. Excessive Plains stays in abnormally dry to distinctive drought.
The Drought Monitor expects that 31% of U.S. 2021 soybean acres are presently experiencing drought. Prime producers Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota are discovering 63%, 99%, 100%, and 98%, respectively, of their soybean acreage to be experiencing drought.
That is essential as a result of the 4 states mix for practically 35% of 2021 U.S. soybean acreage. Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota have the second via fourth largest soybean acreages within the nation this yr, whereas South Dakota’s 2021 soybean acreage ranks seventh largest.
With over a 3rd of the 2021 soybean acres going through drought circumstances, the availability outlook for soybeans is prone to tighten by the upcoming August 2021 Crop Manufacturing and WASDE stories, which may generate a bullish worth motion for the soy futures advanced.
Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose to 34,284,382 instances as of this morning in accordance with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The loss of life toll elevated to 610,192 deaths as of press time.
In accordance with the CDC, practically 69% of U.S. adults have obtained at the least one COVID-19 vaccine. Over 162 million People (49%) are totally vaccinated. Over 3.7 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.
Vaccination charges have largely stalled throughout the U.S. because the virus’s extra contagious Delta variant continues to rampage throughout unvaccinated populations within the U.S.
Courtroom challenges to the Waters of the U.S. (WOTUS) rule, formally often called the Navigable Waters Safety Rule, have farmers throughout the nation scratching their heads about what potential impacts may await for their farms because the Biden Administration considers potential revisions. Farm Futures’ coverage editor Jacqui Fatka breaks down the most recent winds from Washington relating to WOTUS in a recent article.
|Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 7/23/2021|
|Contract||Items||Excessive||Low||Final||Internet Change||% Change|
|SEP ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.6925||5.6025||5.6175||-0.0275||-0.49%|
|DEC ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.65||5.56||5.5775||-0.035||-0.62%|
|MAR ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7225||5.6325||5.65||-0.0375||-0.66%|
|MAY ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7575||5.6725||5.69||-0.035||-0.61%|
|JUL ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.7475||5.665||5.685||-0.0325||-0.57%|
|SEP ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.1925||5.1375||5.1375||-0.0375||-0.72%|
|DEC ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.015||4.96||4.985||-0.0175||-0.35%|
|AUG ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||14.1975||14.01||14.0775||-0.085||-0.60%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.7425||13.535||13.5975||-0.0925||-0.68%|
|NOV ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.68||13.48||13.5375||-0.085||-0.62%|
|JAN ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.725||13.525||13.585||-0.08||-0.59%|
|MAR ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.5625||13.4||13.46||-0.06||-0.44%|
|MAY ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.48||13.3625||13.405||-0.06||-0.45%|
|JUL ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.5||13.35||13.375||-0.065||-0.48%|
|AUG ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.285||#N/A||13.265||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.84||#N/A||12.8225||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||65.57||64.4||65.4||0.4||0.62%|
|SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||64.2||63||64||0.47||0.74%|
|AUG ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||365.4||358.4||358.6||-4.6||-1.27%|
|SEP ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||364.1||357.8||358||-4.8||-1.32%|
|OCT ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||363.4||357.7||358||-4.4||-1.21%|
|DEC ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||368||361.3||361.7||-4.3||-1.17%|
|JAN ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||367.4||361.5||361.6||-4.4||-1.20%|
|SEP ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.9375||6.8525||6.9225||0||0.00%|
|DEC ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.03||6.9425||7.0125||-0.0025||-0.04%|
|MAR ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.0975||7.0175||7.0825||0||0.00%|
|MAY ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.095||7.025||7.0825||-0.005||-0.07%|
|JUL ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||6.9075||6.8525||6.8975||-0.0125||-0.18%|
|SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.57||6.49||6.5575||0.02||0.31%|
|DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.68||6.6075||6.67||0.0225||0.34%|
|MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.745||6.68||6.74||0.0225||0.33%|
|MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.7675||6.7525||6.7575||0.0125||0.19%|
|JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||6.625||6.6||6.625||-0.0025||-0.04%|
|SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.0875||8.995||9.055||0.015||0.17%|
|DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.97||8.895||8.95||0.03||0.34%|
|MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.8075||8.755||8.8075||0.025||0.28%|
|MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.69||8.655||8.69||0.03||0.35%|
|JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.54||#N/A||8.5175||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index||$||93.04||92.785||92.985||0.155||0.17%|
|SE ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||72.11||71.46||71.85||-0.06||-0.08%|
|OC ’21 Gentle Crude||$ / BBL||71.36||70.73||71.12||-0.02||-0.03%|
|AUG ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.139||2.1245||2.1334||0.0008||0.04%|
|SEP ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.1402||2.1251||2.1352||0.0016||0.07%|
|AUG ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.2681||2.2564||2.266||-0.0072||-0.32%|
|SEP ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.246||2.2295||2.2408||-0.0066||-0.29%|
|AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||158.2||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||160.7||0||0.00%|
|AU ’21 Reside Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||120.8||0||0.00%|
|OC ’21 Reside Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||126.675||0||0.00%|
|AUG ’21 Reside Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||106.65||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Reside Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||91.725||0||0.00%|
|JUL ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||16.56||16.56||16.56||-0.01||-0.06%|
|AUG ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||16.59||16.4||16.4||0.01||0.06%|
|SEP ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.04||16.94||16.94||0.12||0.71%|