Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for July 30, 2021

Morning Market Review for July 30, 2021

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Plus – a fast have a look at fertilizer costs on the rise

  • Corn down 5-7 cents
  • Soybeans down 12-15 cents, soymeal down $0.70/ton, soyoil down $0.52/lb
  • Wheat down 5-14 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning!  Extra average temperatures are on the horizon for the Corn Belt. How are your crops surviving the warmth? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop situations. Our Google Map, up to date each day, gives all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the newest farmer feedback from across the nation.

A fast have a look at enter prices

China’s prime fertilizer producers are briefly suspending phosphate and urea exports, which might ship key patrons India and Pakistan seeking different sources the U.S. has come to depend on within the wake of its countervailing tariff dispute with Russia and Morocco.

China is the world’s largest producer of phosphate. Main as much as this announcement, there was some optimism that Chinese language provides might assist offset phosphate shortages within the U.S. as phosphate imports from key producers Russia and Morocco all however vanished following the tariff enforcement.

Fertilizer prices have hit file ranges this 12 months in China as a government-sponsored acreage growth elevated the demand for inputs. Current flooding in central China’s Henan province has additionally stalled fertilizer manufacturing. Rising manufacturing prices and elevated export demand on account of a world acreage enhance this 12 months have additionally performed a big function in dwindling Chinese language phosphate provides.

USDA-IL Dept of Ag Market Information Service

The USDA’s Illinois Division of Ag Market Information Service launched it’s bi-weekly report on farm-level enter prices yesterday and its newest replace had little excellent news for farmers. Potash costs skyrocketed from the earlier report, up practically 1 / 4 over the previous two weeks to $600/ton.

The latest potash price surge is essentially attributed to current financial sanctions enforced on key producer Belarus by the European Union, United Kingdom, U.S., and Canada after the Belarus authorities imprisoned high-profile political protestors.

Potash suppliers have been already tight main as much as the sanctions, which can additional prohibit worldwide flows of the potassium fertilizer. It stays unclear if U.S. producers Nutrien and Mosaic could have the capability to rachet up manufacturing in time for fall utility season.

Countervailing tariff disputes continued to steer phosphate costs greater. New UAN dumping disputes levied in opposition to Russia and Trinidad and Tobago by the U.S. despatched costs climbing over the previous two weeks and will spur UAN costs greater as nicely.

International nitrogen provides proceed to tighten as international acreage growth climbs throughout this period of excessive commodity costs. Growers awaiting spring pricing within the coming weeks might want to pencil out 2022 revenue and value expectations fairly quickly within the subsequent couple weeks to determine if availability is well worth the present excessive prices of inputs or if they will afford to take a chance and wait for costs to average within the more and more unstable post-pandemic period.

Corn

The European Fee lowered its forecast for corn imports into the EU throughout the 2021/22 advertising 12 months on elevated manufacturing forecasts. Cooler temperatures and showers within the Higher Midwest anticipated at this time additionally helped decrease costs in a single day.

Soybeans

Soybean costs fell $0.10-$0.12/bushel as temperatures within the drought-plagued Higher Midwest moderated. Showers within the Higher Midwest anticipated later at this time will probably profit the crop as pollination looms within the early days of August. Slightly export optimism from yesterday’s weekly Export Sales report from USDA helped to cap the morning’s losses.

Wheat

Larger 2021/22 wheat manufacturing estimates for the European Union issued in a single day by the European Fee relieved dealer considerations about tight provides for the 2021/22 advertising 12 months, sending wheat futures costs within the U.S. decrease. Losses have been restricted by drought considerations for the Russian and American wheat crops.

The Worldwide Grains Council (IGC) launched slimmed down estimates for 2021/22 international wheat manufacturing yesterday. Persistent drought within the Canadian prairies and U.S. Northern Plains was the important thing driver behind the month-to-month forecast’s discount. A crop report from Saskatchewan’s authorities web site famous that any rainfall at this level could have no impact on yields however will go an extended method to replenishing soil moisture ranges for subsequent 12 months.

IGC does count on higher than anticipated yields from the European Union regardless of premature rains throughout peak winter wheat harvest actions. The IGC now forecasts 2021/22 international wheat manufacturing at 28.95 billion bushels, down practically 37 million bushels from its earlier month’s estimate. The ICG additionally elevated its 2021/22 international corn forecast by 39 million bushels to 47.3 billion bushels.

The Wheat High quality Council’s (WQC) spring wheat tour simply got here to a detailed, with crop scouts confirming under common 2021 spring wheat yields on account of drought within the Northern Plains. Whereas situations different throughout fields, the WQC in the end landed on an estimate of 29.1 bushel per acre – the bottom measured yield noticed on the tour since 1993.

USDA’s present nationwide yield estimate for 2021 spring wheat stands at 28.0 bushels per acre. North Dakota is the nation’s largest spring wheat producer.

Climate

Cooler temperatures are shifting into the Higher Midwest as showers from earlier this week transfer out, in accordance with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Temperatures will probably fall into the 80’s within the Higher Midwest by this afternoon, although blistering temperatures will probably stay in place within the Southern Plains. The cooldown bodes nicely for crops – particularly corn crops which are getting into into peak pollination exercise this week.

The showers will shift into the Missouri River Valley at this time. South Dakota, Japanese Nebraska, Iowa, and Northern Missouri might see as much as two inches of rain over the subsequent 24 hours.

Up to date Drought Monitor knowledge launched yesterday noticed nation-wide drought situations ease barely, falling over half a p.c to indicate 53.54% of the nation in some form of abnormally dry to drought situation.

Scattered bathe throughout the Midwest by means of the week ending July 27 helped to alleviate dry situations, because the drought scores for the area slipped half a p.c to 34.3% of acreage reporting dry to drought situations.

Practically 72% of acreage within the Excessive Plains are reporting dry to drought situations, down fractionally from the earlier week. Round a third of cattle, corn, and soybean producing areas throughout the nation are experiencing drought.

droughtmonitor.unl.edudrought monitor chart of the U.S.

Financials

Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose to 34,754,668 instances as of this morning in accordance with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The dying toll elevated to 612,129 deaths as of press time.

In response to the CDC, 69% of U.S. adults have acquired at the least one COVID-19 vaccine. Practically 164 million People (49%) are totally vaccinated. Over 4 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 7/30/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Web Change % Change
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.5775 5.5325 5.545 -0.035 -0.63%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.56 5.5075 5.52 -0.045 -0.81%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.635 5.5875 5.595 -0.0475 -0.84%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.6775 5.6325 5.64 -0.0475 -0.84%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.6775 5.635 5.6375 -0.0475 -0.84%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.1675 5.12 5.1275 -0.04 -0.77%
DEC ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.005 4.9725 4.98 -0.0325 -0.65%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.41 14.2775 14.2775 -0.065 -0.45%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.8725 13.7225 13.7425 -0.11 -0.79%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.8075 13.65 13.6675 -0.11 -0.80%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.8475 13.6975 13.7125 -0.1075 -0.78%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.7375 13.605 13.6275 -0.09 -0.66%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.67 13.5875 13.59 -0.085 -0.62%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.64 13.545 13.5475 -0.1 -0.73%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4175 #N/A 13.45 0 0.00%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.7825 #N/A 12.975 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 66.75 66.35 66.41 -0.52 -0.78%
SEP ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 66.4 65.21 65.4 -0.82 -1.24%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 359.3 356.5 356.5 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 359 355.2 356.3 -0.2 -0.06%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 357.8 354.1 355.3 -0.4 -0.11%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 361.5 357.6 358.7 -0.7 -0.19%
JAN ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 361.8 358 359.3 -0.6 -0.17%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.105 6.975 6.9925 -0.06 -0.85%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.185 7.0575 7.0725 -0.065 -0.91%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.25 7.125 7.14 -0.0675 -0.94%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.215 7.12 7.1275 -0.07 -0.97%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.035 6.9275 6.93 -0.0775 -1.11%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.7825 6.68 6.69 -0.055 -0.82%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.89 6.785 6.795 -0.0575 -0.84%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.96 6.865 6.865 -0.0575 -0.83%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.92 6.915 6.915 -0.0275 -0.40%
JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.8025 6.7325 6.7325 -0.065 -0.96%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.175 9.0275 9.045 -0.14 -1.52%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.025 8.875 8.9 -0.1325 -1.47%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.8175 8.7225 8.7225 -0.15 -1.69%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.67 8.595 8.595 -0.1225 -1.41%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  0 #N/A 8.5375 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 92.015 91.78 91.915 0.044 0.05%
 SE ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  73.62 72.93 73.43 -0.19 -0.26%
 OC ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  72.98 72.3 72.79 -0.19 -0.26%
AUG ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.185 2.174 2.183 -0.0064 -0.29%
SEP ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1924 2.1759 2.1849 -0.0072 -0.33%
AUG ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.35 2.3395 2.3489 -0.0025 -0.11%
SEP ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.3262 2.3071 2.3178 -0.0073 -0.31%
AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 158.5 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 161.95 0 0.00%
 AU ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 122.5 0 0.00%
 OC ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 128.15 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 106.3 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 88.975 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.47 #N/A 16.48 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.22 16.22 16.22 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.26 16.26 16.26 0 0.00%

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