Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for June 11, 2021

Morning Market Review for June 11, 2021

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Grain markets proceed to digest the fallout from yesterday’s WASDE report

  • Corn down 8-16 cents
  • Soybeans down 17-22 cents, soyoil down $2.01/lb, soymeal down $1.90/ton
  • Wheat down 7-16 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning! Rains within the Northern Plains and Japanese Corn Belt have helped present some aid to drought-stressed areas of each areas. The newest Feedback from the Field evaluation chronicles farmer struggles throughout the Heartland.

Need to see how your farm stacks up towards others throughout the nation? Click here to take our ongoing farmer survey on crop progress at any level within the 2021 grain season. Our Google Map, up to date every day, supplies all previous responses for farm readers.

Corn

Regardless of buying and selling briefly yesterday above the $7/bushel benchmark, July corn futures slipped again beneath the $7/bushel mark and began the time out $0.06-$0.12/bushel decrease than yesterday’s shut as at present’s forecast options rains that might present aid to drought-stressed areas of the Higher Midwest and Northern Plains.

Increased than anticipated corn yields in Argentina additionally weighed on futures costs this morning after the Buenos Aires Grains Exchanged raised its outlook for 2020/21 Argentine corn manufacturing by 8% to 1.89 billion bushels. Argentina is the world’s third largest exporter of corn.

Regardless of optimistic weekly ethanol manufacturing readings over the previous month, producers might face a brand new problem within the coming future. A Reuters report in a single day means that President Biden’s Administration is contemplating methods to assist U.S. refiners discover aid from biofuel mixing mandates.

The Biden Administration, who additionally introduced deliberate revisions to Navigable Waters Protection Rule regulations applied through the Trump period on Wednesday, has actively rolled again President Trump’s important enlargement of mixing exemption waivers for refiners throughout its first few months in workplace, so the information is considerably of a shock to the agriculture trade.

The RIN credit refiners are compelled to by as a part of the Renewable Gas Normal have soared to the best costs on report as of late, compounding to the oil trade’s complications over the previous yr throughout which period the pandemic ate away at shopper gas demand and oil firms’ income.

USDA fed corn bulls within the June 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report launched yesterday. The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WOAB) slashed 2020/21 corn ending shares by 150 million bushels – about 100 million greater than analysts had been anticipating – on rising export and ethanol demand.  A lowered corn crop from Brazil additionally lent bullish energy to the corn complicated whereas wheat futures had been blended following larger international manufacturing estimates for the 2021 crop.

Outdated crop corn stole the present in yesterday’s WASDE report. March and April 2021 featured the biggest two month-to-month corn export loading volumes – and revenues – in recorded historical past and USDA took that to coronary heart. Sturdy Chinese language demand – in addition to rising general international feed demand – triggered USDA’s upward revisions to the U.S. corn export forecast for 2020/21.

As summer season journey season heats up and extra People take to the roads within the post-pandemic period, ethanol manufacturing has largely returned to pre-pandemic ranges over the previous month. Added capability has returned on-line after idling through the pandemic and refiner and blender utilization of ethanol continues to rise.

Each strikes will shrink U.S. corn provides to the tightest degree since 1995/96. A smaller Brazilian crop on account of ongoing drought stress and late planting points with the safrinha crop additional tightened international provides because the corn provide state of affairs begins to look more and more extra like that of soybeans. As drought circumstances persist within the Higher Midwest and farmers battle sluggish emergence charges, corn futures will seemingly give soybeans a robust run their cash within the coming weeks.

Soybeans

Soybean costs fell $0.14-$0.23/bushel decrease in a single day as markets continued to digest the prospect of elevated 2020/21 U.S. soybean shares following yesterday’s WASDE report from USDA.

Will increase to the Brazilian soybean harvest additionally eased export stress on U.S. soybean provides whereas weekend showers within the Northern Plains and Higher Midwest provided hope for drought aid to the newly planted 2021 U.S. soybean crop.

It marks the primary time in three weeks the soybean complicated has suffered a weekly loss. Soyoil and soymeal costs additionally adopted soybean costs decrease this morning, although a world edible oil scarcity and livestock demand might assist to restrict losses for each sectors within the coming days.

USDA walked again report highs for 2020/21 U.S. soybean crush volumes in yesterday’s WASDE report as processors scramble to supply feedstocks from dwindling on-farm shares following an aggressive export and crush season earlier within the 2020/21 advertising yr. Money choices at crush crops within the Japanese Corn Belt have ranged between $0.45-$1.10/bushel over futures costs in current days, reflecting scarce provides and powerful utilization charges.

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Processing charges will seemingly decline till the 2021 crop is harvested, although it would face stiff competitors from export markets at the moment which might provide farmers some profitable harvest pricing choices. U.S. ending shares widened again to the second-tightest degree on report due to the decrease crush charges.

Extra biodiesel manufacturing capability is predicted to come back on-line within the coming years because the demand for inexperienced power – particularly for industrial automobiles – soars. Even with tight capacities, the demand forecasts recommend that prime soybean costs could also be round for some time.

A greater than anticipated 2020/21 soybean harvest in Brazil additionally added to the decrease costs within the soybean complicated each yesterday and this morning. Regardless of a late planting season, premature harvest rains, and a dry rising season, USDA raised Brazil’s 2020/21 soybean forecast by 36.7 million bushels to a staggering 5.0 million bushels, with rising paces in 2021/22 anticipated to barely outpace the present yr’s yields.

As processing demand eases this summer season, Whole Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm begs the query, “How high can this soybean market run?” Within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column, Blohm examines the distinction between previous rallies in 2008 and 2012. USDA bucked historic traits yesterday by lowering U.S. soy crush charges.

However Blohm notes that bullish potential nonetheless underlies the soybean complicated. “And going forward, due to the imperfect start to the 2021/22 growing season (drought, frost, heavy rain, high heat, not enough rain in some places) we likely will NOT see trendline yield nationwide for this growing season,” Blohm forecasts. “Buckle up friends, it is going to be a wild ride.”

Wheat

About 81% of France’s smooth winter wheat crop is rated in good to glorious situation, a 1% enchancment from final week as plentiful rains soak the European Union’s largest wheat producer. The prospect for extra aggressive European Union wheat exports this yr, mixed with a stronger greenback, larger international wheat manufacturing forecasts, and drought-relieving rains within the Northern Plains and Canada despatched wheat futures $0.07-$0.13/bushel decrease this morning.

In yesterday’s WASDE report, international wheat manufacturing rose practically 7% from prior month estimates to a staggering 29.2 billion bushels anticipated to be harvested within the 2021/22 advertising yr, as favorable spring rains within the European Union, Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine enhance international yield expectations.

However rising livestock and human meals demand elevated international wheat consumption charges to 29.1 billion bushels, leaving international wheat shares on the tightest degree for the reason that 2016/15 season. Ending international shares for 2021/22 elevated barely larger than analyst expectations on the upper manufacturing as Chicago futures inched decrease on the prospect of upper international smooth wheat competitors within the export market.

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Climate

A rain system is predicted to maneuver by way of the Northern Plains and Higher Midwest at present, in response to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The system will linger over the Nice Lakes tomorrow and shift into the Japanese Corn Belt by Sunday.

The Higher Midwest, Northern Plains, Central Plains, and Japanese Corn Belt might see between a half inch to over an inch of precipitation accumulation within the subsequent 24 hours, which might assist present some aid to depleted soil moisture ranges throughout the areas.

Financials

Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 33,426,993 circumstances as of this morning in response to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The dying toll elevated to 598,750 deaths as of press time. Each metrics have slowed significantly as vaccination charges rise and life begins to return to extra regular patterns.

In line with the CDC, practically 52% of the whole U.S. inhabitants has obtained at the least one COVID-19 vaccine. Practically 142 million People (43%) are totally vaccinated. Over 2.2 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

Grain markets have been nothing in need of risky this spring, due largely to variable climate throughout the Midwest and Plains. However for these trying for extra advertising insights, think about testing Farm Future’s Enterprise Summit, to be held June 16-17 on the Coralville Marriot in Coralville, Iowa.

The Summit will function a market analyst panel that can break down present market circumstances and provide insights as to how long this bull market could – or could not – final. For extra data or to register, go to FarmFuturesSummit.com.

The Wall Street Journal reported in a single day that meat processing behemoth JBS paid $11 million in Bitcoin to ransomware hackers who halted the corporate’s North American and Australian meat packing actions early final week. New revisions by the Environmental Safety Company and Division of the Military are anticipated to vary the definition of “waters of the United States,” In different hot-button ag points breaking over the previous day.

S&P 500 futures rose this morning, on observe to shut at one other report excessive on good points within the know-how sector. However a lot of the optimism surrounding the financial restoration from the pandemic has waned in current days as larger inflation charges, the prospect of upper taxes, emergence of recent COVID-19 variants, and inventory overvaluations are additionally lingering behind merchants’ minds. S&P 500 futures added 0.15% in in a single day buying and selling to $4,235.25.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 6/11/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Web Change % Change
JUL ’21 CORN $ / BSH  7.03 6.8625 6.8775 -0.1125 -1.61%
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  6.415 6.2175 6.2325 -0.15 -2.35%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  6.1975 5.9875 6.005 -0.16 -2.60%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  6.25 6.045 6.06 -0.16 -2.57%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  6.2775 6.08 6.09 -0.1625 -2.60%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  6.2775 6.0775 6.1 -0.1475 -2.36%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.475 5.4025 5.4025 -0.0725 -1.32%
JUL ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  15.5125 15.31 15.335 -0.105 -0.68%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  15.1575 14.9375 14.955 -0.145 -0.96%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.735 14.495 14.51 -0.1725 -1.17%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.6425 14.39 14.405 -0.19 -1.30%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.65 14.4075 14.4075 -0.2025 -1.39%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.3675 14.155 14.155 -0.175 -1.22%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.2925 14.0925 14.0975 -0.165 -1.16%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.2875 14.1 14.1 -0.1575 -1.10%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.98 #N/A 14.0525 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 70.6 68.57 68.73 -1.73 -2.46%
AUG ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 68.9 66.97 67.02 -1.66 -2.42%
JUL ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 383.9 379.6 380.1 -1.5 -0.39%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 386.4 382.2 382.6 -1.4 -0.36%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 389.2 384.8 385.1 -1.8 -0.47%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 390.6 386.9 386.9 -1.7 -0.44%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 395.9 390.9 391.3 -2.3 -0.58%
JUL ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.88 6.7625 6.77 -0.0675 -0.99%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.9375 6.8175 6.8275 -0.07 -1.01%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.0125 6.8875 6.895 -0.0775 -1.11%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.07 6.9625 6.9625 -0.075 -1.07%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.08 7.0075 7.015 -0.0375 -0.53%
JUL ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.4275 6.3075 6.315 -0.0875 -1.37%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.5025 6.39 6.4025 -0.0825 -1.27%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.5875 6.48 6.485 -0.0875 -1.33%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.6475 6.565 6.565 -0.0925 -1.39%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.7275 #N/A 6.7125 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.7975 7.6275 7.6275 -0.1275 -1.64%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.8625 7.6875 7.71 -0.1075 -1.38%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.88 7.72 7.72 -0.1125 -1.44%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.77 7.705 7.7175 -0.11 -1.41%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  7.8075 #N/A 7.8075 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 90.295 89.96 90.285 0.207 0.23%
 JU ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  70.8 69.68 70.54 0.25 0.36%
 AU ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  70.54 69.47 70.29 0.2 0.29%
JUL ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1528 2.1301 2.1337 -0.0097 -0.45%
AUG ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.1549 2.133 2.1369 -0.009 -0.42%
JUL ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.2232 2.1975 2.2036 -0.0086 -0.39%
AUG ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.222 2.1975 2.2033 -0.0082 -0.37%
AUG ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 148.4 0 0.00%
SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 150.9 0 0.00%
 JU ’21 Dwell Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 117.575 0 0.00%
 AU ’21 Dwell Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 118.55 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 Dwell Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 122.45 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 Dwell Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 121.325 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.21 17.2 17.2 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.49 #N/A 17.6 0 0.00%
AUG ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 18.38 18.34 18.34 -0.03 -0.16%

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