Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for March 19, 2021

Morning Market Review for March 19, 2021

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Soybeans rise on tight shares, growing biofuel demand

  • Corn down 1 cent
  • Soybeans up 1-3 cents, soyoil down $0.22/lb, soymeal up $1.40/ton
  • Chicago & Kansas Metropolis Wheat down 1 cent; Minneapolis wheat up 4 cents

*Costs as of 6:50am CDT.

Tomorrow is the primary day of spring – the most effective season of the 12 months!

Diplomatic talks between the U.S. and China received off to a really rocky begin yesterday as debate over commerce, human rights, and every thing in between declined into arguing. Little progress is anticipated in right now’s talks, with a lot of the theatrics largely meant for the at-home viewers – on each side.

“The barbs on both sides appeared intended for domestic consumption, with Biden seeking to show his supporters that he’s tough on China and President Xi Jinping needing to satisfy his own increasingly nationalistic population,” in line with a Bloomberg report. “Still, the unusually acrimonious exchange showed the world just how hard it will be to repair a relationship that deteriorated rapidly under Donald Trump.”

Whereas the fiery exchanges should not completely sudden and will grow to be the brand new regular between the international locations, the drama probably doesn’t bode properly for the U.S. grain markets, which backed off bullish in a single day positive factors as this market data got here to gentle.

Corn

Regardless of three consecutive giant day by day flash corn export gross sales to China this week, corn markets nonetheless traded a few penny decrease this morning due largely to rain in Argentina, which can probably enhance provide situations within the area, in addition to deteriorating commerce talks between the U.S. and China.

USDA studies Cattle on Feed stock ranges later this afternoon. Market estimates place the whole Cattle on Feed quantity about 1.5% greater than a 12 months in the past at 12.2 million head.

Estimates for placements in February 2021 are much less sure, with a variety of 5.2% beneath to three.6% above final February’s determine of 1.69 million head attainable. The common estimate of 1.66 million head is just below the reporting interval from a 12 months in the past.

Slaughterhouse closures final month resulting from surging pure gasoline prices and shortages amid the chilly snap is prone to take a toll on February 2021 advertising and marketing charges. Market analysts expect right now’s determine to be 5%-8% decrease than February 2020 with a median guess of 1.68 million head suggesting the manufacturing slowdowns probably backed up placement charges on feedlots as properly.

However with manufacturing ranges returned to regular paces, international patrons are lining as much as buy U.S. meat in droves, Whole Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm writes. Plus, as vaccination charges rise throughout the nation and the climate warms up, restaurant and grilling demand (I’m coming for you, patio season!) will probably drive meat demand greater within the coming months.

“The October 2021 contract closed at a new high on Wednesday at $125.27 as demand is expected to grow on tightening cattle supplies,” Blohm observes. “With the government stimulus checks hitting American checking accounts this week and next, many feel that money will be quickly spent on groceries, grilling out, spring break travel, and restaurant meals as COVID-19 vaccine distribution ramps up.”

China’s African swine flu points may maintain U.S. pork exports to China sizzling within the coming months. Latest outbreaks are estimated to have culled the Chinese language herd by 3% – 5%. Studies of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS) within the U.S. may additionally threaten the home hog herd.

However meat demand is prone to proceed to develop each at dwelling and overseas because the pandemic eases. And talks between the U.S. and China this week may bode properly for U.S. meat and grain markets if relations stay pleasant. “Both cattle and hog futures remain in uptrends and have no sign of a top.”

“Spring fever is in the air,” Blohm displays within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column “and the desire to return to a pre-Covid world is strong.” Sure, it’s.

Soybeans

Robust demand for soyoil because the U.S. strikes quickly in direction of extra sustainable gasoline sources and the biodiesel sector expands underpinned the morning’s positive factors within the soybean market. And it was sorely wanted as soybean costs are on tempo for a weekly drop. Positive factors have been restricted by souring diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China.

Corn exports for the week ending March 11 set a brand new record-high of 86.6 million bushels in yesterday’s export sales report. However those self same USDA figures weren’t fairly as pleasant to soybean exports. Loading paces tumbled 44% decrease final week to 19.6 million bushels.

It was the bottom weekly soybean export loading quantity of the 2020/21 advertising and marketing 12 months, led by a pointy discount in transport paces to China. Solely 3.0 million bushels of soybeans have been shipped to China final week because it turns to Brazil’s freshly harvested soybean provides. Common weekly loading paces to China previous to this week totaled 48.5 million bushels. Get able to see some lackluster soybean export volumes for the following few months, of us.

Wheat

Deteriorating forecasts for Chinese language demand for smooth wheat from the European Union gave the U.S. wheat futures a preventing likelihood of posting positive factors in a single day. However cooling diplomatic relations between the united statesand China despatched Chicago and Kansas Metropolis wheat futures decrease this morning.

Chinese language demand for U.S. white wheat has been sturdy as of late, as mirrored by positive factors within the Minneapolis wheat advanced this morning.

Climate

Clear skies are forecast throughout the Midwest and Plains right now, in line with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. Little new climate exercise is probably going over the weekend within the area, although the Northern Plains may see an opportunity of snow by Sunday morning.

Drought situations within the Excessive Plains fell after final weekend’s heavy and moist snow (my tulips lived to battle one other day, FYI) and despatched the nation’s general drought rating barely decrease on the week. For the week ending March 16, dry to drought situations eased 0.69% to 65.85% throughout the U.S.

However within the Excessive Plains, dry situations fell from 95.09% every week in the past to 87.64% in yesterday’s up to date drought monitor from the College of Nebraska. The weekend’s snow actually helped, however the Plains and Western U.S. states nonetheless want extra moisture earlier than they’re out of the drought hazard zone.

Financials

Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose by 59,720 to 29,667,882 instances as of this morning in line with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The demise toll elevated by 1,606 lives to 539,699 deaths as of press time.

Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack stays laser-focused on reestablishing the U.S. as a global agricultural trade powerhouse however he’s desperate to implement new carbon-friendly insurance policies which are additionally designed with the farmer – not the investor – in thoughts.

Secretary Vilsack sat down with Farm Futures’ coverage editor Jacqui Fatka to debate the potential for restoring and preserving U.S. topsoil in ways in which could be helpful – and manageable – for farmers. However as Fatka reminds farmers within the newest DC Dialogue column, USDA wants farmer enter to provide you with a possible answer for everybody.

USDA is requesting public comments on tips on how to create methods to unravel these issues and would particularly choose to listen to farmers’ views on the matter. “We want your ideas on how to position the agriculture and forestry sectors to be leaders on climate smart practices to mitigate climate change,” Vilsack says.

“This includes making the most of USDA programs, developing new USDA-led climate strategies, strengthening existing markets and developing new markets that generate income.”

Okay sports activities followers! Immediately is the day we’ve all been eagerly ready for – it’s the primary official day of March Insanity basketball video games! My household takes this season very significantly – we’ve got a bracket problem with prolonged household throughout the nation with the winner receiving a coveted field of premium cheeses (we’re so clearly dairy farmers).

It’s fairly aggressive although. A primary spherical matchup between my mother’s Wisconsin Badgers and my uncle’s Carolina Tar Heels may begin a household feud! And the way far will my beloved Boilermakers go this 12 months?! After a 12 months off, we couldn’t be extra excited for the trash discuss, humorous crew names, memes, and Cinderella tales. Have an excellent weekend and Boiler UP!

Know-how shares drove U.S. equities markets greater in a single day after every week of uneven buying and selling exercise. The sentiment lifted in a single day buying and selling losses after diplomatic talks in China received off to a rocky begin. S&P 500 futures rose 0.22% to $3,914.50.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 3/19/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Web Change % Change
MAY ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.5075 5.4625 5.475 0.01 0.18%
JUL ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.3425 5.3 5.3125 0.01 0.19%
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  4.88 4.8375 4.8525 -0.01 -0.21%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  4.695 4.6525 4.68 0 0.00%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.775 4.735 4.765 0.005 0.11%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.8225 4.7825 4.81 0 0.00%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.8275 4.8025 4.8275 0.0025 0.05%
MAY ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.0125 13.9 13.9525 0.03 0.22%
JUL ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.89 13.775 13.835 0.03 0.22%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.4325 13.33 13.3875 0.03 0.22%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6 12.51 12.57 0.0225 0.18%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.13 12.0225 12.085 0.0225 0.19%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.11 12.005 12.07 0.0275 0.23%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.9525 11.86 11.945 0.05 0.42%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.92 11.83 11.9125 0.0525 0.44%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.8675 #N/A 11.87 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 53.72 52.97 53.27 -0.25 -0.47%
JUL ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 51.75 50.84 51.26 -0.07 -0.14%
MAY ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 401.6 398.2 400 1.8 0.45%
JUL ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 401.3 398 399.9 1.6 0.40%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 394.1 391.3 393.1 1.7 0.43%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 384.6 382.4 383.7 1.5 0.39%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 373.1 370.9 372.4 1.3 0.35%
MAY ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.355 6.2725 6.305 0 0.00%
JUL ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.265 6.1875 6.2225 0.0025 0.04%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.2575 6.1925 6.22 0.0025 0.04%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.3275 6.26 6.295 0.0075 0.12%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.375 6.315 6.365 0.025 0.39%
MAY ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.9025 5.8425 5.8575 -0.0125 -0.21%
JUL ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.955 5.8925 5.91 -0.0125 -0.21%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.0075 5.9475 5.98 0.005 0.08%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.0925 6.045 6.05 -0.0075 -0.12%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  6.15 6.1 6.1425 0.0275 0.45%
MAY ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.3075 6.235 6.2825 0.0275 0.44%
JUL ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.3875 6.315 6.3825 0.0475 0.75%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.4425 6.3875 6.44 0.04 0.63%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.5025 6.47 6.5025 0.025 0.39%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.5525 #N/A 6.5175 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 91.98 91.665 91.9 0.03 0.03%
 AP ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  61.33 59.11 60.06 0.06 0.10%
 MA ’21 Mild Crude $ / BBL  61.41 59.19 60.13 0.07 0.12%
APR ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.8196 1.7678 1.7922 0.008 0.45%
MAY ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.8209 1.7695 1.7908 0.0049 0.27%
APR ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.9711 1.9161 1.9451 0.001 0.05%
MAY ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.97 1.9148 1.9397 -0.001 -0.05%
MAR ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 135.525 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 141.425 0 0.00%
 AP ’21 Dwell Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 118.575 0 0.00%
 JU ’21 Dwell Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 119.65 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Dwell Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 94.3 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Dwell Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 95 0 0.00%
MAR ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.24 #N/A 16.26 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.34 17.28 17.28 -0.06 -0.35%
MAY ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.82 #N/A 17.9 0 0.00%

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