Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for March 26, 2021

Morning Market Review for March 26, 2021

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Corn, soy blended after a quiet in a single day buying and selling session

  • Corn blended
  • Soybeans blended, soyoil up $0.33/lb, soymeal down $2.20/ton
  • Wheat down 1-2 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Outcomes from the March 2021 Farm Futures survey are stay! The March 2021 Farm Futures survey tasks 93.6 million acres of corn and 88.5 million acres of soybeans might be planted throughout the nation this spring. A report variety of stop plant acres will come into manufacturing this yr, permitting acreage for corn, soybeans, and wheat to rise to 227 million acres. However will it’s sufficient provide to fulfill record-breaking demand?

Take a look at the results from our latest survey for an in-depth provide and demand evaluation primarily based on our 2021 acreage projections.

Corn

Corn futures costs had been largely blended throughout all contracts this morning, wavering in between positive factors and losses to the tune of 1 penny as markets digested new acreage estimates forward of subsequent week’s Potential Planting’s report from USDA. Any potential losses had been restricted by planting delays in Brazil.

Corn exports stole the present in yesterday’s export sales report from USDA. For the week ending March 18, USDA reported 80.2 million bushels of corn had been shipped to worldwide prospects through U.S. terminals.

Whereas the quantity was 7% decrease than final week’s record-breaking whole of 86.6 million bushels, this week’s haul was the second largest weekly corn export quantity on report. The truth is, three of the final 4 reporting weeks for USDA’s weekly export loadings knowledge have notched new report highs for weekly corn export loading paces.

However the fast corn export loading paces weren’t the one excellent news for the corn advanced on this morning’s report. New 2020/21 corn export gross sales for the week ending March 18 jumped to 176.5 million bushels, rising 4.5 instances greater than final week’s new sale quantity after China booked 153.2 million bushels of corn forward of final week’s diplomatic talks between China and the U.S.

The goodwill gesture accounted for 86% of all whole new 2020/21 corn export gross sales for the week. New orders from South Korea (13.9M bu.) and Mexico (7.7M bu.) additionally rounded out new export gross sales for the reporting interval.

Soybeans

Outdated crop soybean costs edged up a penny in in a single day commerce, although deferred contracts noticed a $0.02/bushel loss. The Worldwide Grains Council expects world grain manufacturing will soar to 2.287 billion tonnes within the 2021/22 advertising and marketing yr, however that rising demand will largely account for any new manufacturing positive factors.

Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture reported that its farmers have offered 28% of its soybean crop as of March 17. The Buenos Aires Grains Alternate expects the 2020/21 Argentine soybean harvest to achieve 1.617 billion bushels regardless of dry climate circumstances this rising season.

The Argentine agricultural ministry expects that soybean gross sales are seemingly slower this yr than the identical time a yr prior as lingering farmer and provide chain uncertainty stays about yields amid a rocky crop yr. Argentina produced 1.8 billion bushels of soybeans within the 2019/20 marketing campaign.

Farmer gross sales of corn additionally had been slower than the identical time a yr in the past, in keeping with knowledge from the Ministry of Agriculture. Argentine farmers have offered 771.7 million bushels of corn to date this yr, about 59.1 million fewer bushels than the identical time final yr on comparable drought issues.

Soybean export prospects had been much less rosy than these of corn final week. Weekly export loading paces fell barely from final week to 18.4 million bushels, down 1.2 million bushels from per week prior. Egypt was the highest vacation spot for U.S. soybeans final week, with almost 6.1 million bushels shipped to the North African nation through the week ending March 18.

Weekly loading paces to China dropped by 2.5 million bushels from per week prior to only shy of half one million bushels this week. The decline shouldn’t come as an entire shock to the market – Chinese language consumers usually supply extra soybeans from Brazil this time of yr.

The extra stunning facet is how lengthy the Chinese language have relied on the U.S. soybean provide relative to earlier years as a consequence of Brazil’s ongoing harvest and delivery delays. Over the past 5 weeks, common U.S. soy delivery paces to China are greater than double the charges of a yr in the past as a consequence of Brazil’s sluggish harvest.

Anticipate these paces to proceed to say no – and presumably much more quickly after this week. A stronger greenback in a single day elevated the worth of Brazilian soybeans relative to these sourced from the U.S., which will increase China’s monetary incentives to scale back sourcing of U.S. soybeans and easily wait out Brazil’s delivery delays.

Subsequent week’s Quarterly Shares and Potential Plantings experiences from USDA are anticipated to rattle markets as previous crop utilization charges are weighed in opposition to potential new crop provides. Complete Farm Advertising’s Naomi Blohm provides just a few potential eventualities for attainable outcomes in subsequent week’s knowledge within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.

Backside line: Blohm expects the soybean market to stay tight no matter subsequent Wednesday’s quantity. And for corn, “there is a much broader scope to consider for Wednesday’s report,” Blohm cautions. “Lower yields last fall, attractive prices, strong exports, and farmers owning more bins, makes it a bit trickier to know for sure where current supplies on hand actually are.”

Blohm expects that if corn acreage is available in above 94 million acres, corn futures costs may take a unfavourable hit. “Being ready for this type of price reaction and volatility takes time on your part to prepare your marketing strategy for any of the scenarios above,” Blohm concludes. “This is a market where you need to manage upside price potential, but also manage price risk. Managing both aspects ahead of the report is what makes you a good marketer.”

Wheat

Rains in Australia eased drought issues within the area. Optimistic crop progress experiences from international locations within the European Union and bettering climate forecasts within the Southern Plains eased provide issues within the wheat market, sending futures $0.01-$0.02/bushel decrease. A strengthening greenback additionally put a dent in wheat’s upward value mobility this morning.

Ukraine wheat exports proceed to lag behind final yr’s paces because the Black Sea nation inches nearer in the direction of utilizing up its 2020/21 wheat export quota. 2020/21 Ukrainian wheat export loading paces are down 19.1% from a yr in the past, with exporters reporting having shipped about 522.4 million bushels of wheat because the advertising and marketing yr started final July 1.

Ukraine’s 2020/21 wheat export quota is ready at 643.0 million bushels. To date, 81% of the quota has been used. Ukraine is the world’s sixth largest exporter of wheat.

The French winter wheat crop was largely seen as in fine condition for the week ending March 22. France’s farm workplace, FranceAgriMer, launched updating situation scores in a single day, which discovered its 87% comfortable wheat crop to be in good to wonderful situation. The ranking was unchanged from per week in the past.

Russian agricultural consultancy IKAR raised its 2021 wheat manufacturing outlook as favorable climate boosted crop circumstances within the nation’s key southern wheat rising areas. IKAR raised its forecast 2% from earlier estimates to 2.932 billion bushels. USDA knowledge reveals that Russia produced 3.316 billion bushels of wheat in 2020 when climate circumstances had been far much less agreeable, suggesting that IKAR’s estimate could tread on the conservative facet.

At any charge, IKAR expects Russian wheat exports to rise within the coming advertising and marketing yr. IKAR boosted their export forecast by 36.7 million bushels to 1.451 billion bushels for the 2021/22 advertising and marketing yr, which is able to start on July 1 in Russia.

Weekly export loading volumes for wheat edged barely decrease from final week, however at 24.2 million bushels, the weekly quantity was miles forward of historic paces for the time of yr. Wheat export delivery paces usually see a seasonal increase this time of yr and if the final two weeks are any indicator, this yr’s wheat export season may very well be even hotter than most.

Bangladesh was the highest vacation spot for U.S. wheat for the week ending March 18, at 4.3 million bushels. Almost 3.0 million bushels had been shipped to Japan from U.S. ports final week, with one other 2.6 million bushels destined for China.

Chinese language demand is a key contributor to the bullish wheat export quantity, however some non-traditional consumers have been reserving massive shipments over the previous couple weeks as Russia’s steep wheat export tax costs many smaller international locations out of the worldwide wheat commerce, sending them to U.S. shores for wheat.

Algeria, usually one of many European Union’s largest prospects, was shipped 2.7 million bushels of U.S. wheat final week. And Taiwan, Peru, Chile, and Namibia had been all shipped wheat vessels from the U.S. final week after not shopping for any within the prior week.

Climate

A snow system within the Central Rockies will push precipitation into the Central and Northern Plains tonight, in keeping with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The system will shift by means of the Northern Plains into the Higher Mississippi River Valley tomorrow morning, leaving as much as an inch of accumulation in its wake.

The College of Nebraska’s Drought Monitor launched earlier at the moment pointed to bettering soil moisture ranges throughout the U.S. as current precipitation favored rising circumstances. For the week ending March 23, 64.21% of U.S. acreage was reported to be in some sort of dry or drought situation, down 1.64% from the earlier week.

Financials

Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose by 68,423 to 30,079,973 instances as of this morning in keeping with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The demise toll elevated by 1,543 lives to 546,825 deaths as of press time.

Many farmers are itching to start out spring fieldwork. However Farm Futures senior editor factors out that farmers could wish to take a second take a look at enter methods earlier than the wheels hit the bottom. Potter’s interview with Rabobank inputs analyst Sam Taylor means that farmers shouldn’t focus solely on yields.

“Inputs should be measured by the margins they provide, not just on the bushels they bring,” Taylor factors out. “Keep the ratio of input cost to value creation in mind.” Take a look at Potter and Taylor’s tips for the best inputs strategies forward of planting to ensure your farm is optimizing inputs.

Provide chain disruptions may proceed to upend world chemical trades, as evidenced by new enter value knowledge launched by the USDA workplace in Springfield, Illinois yesterday. Anhydrous ammonia costs rose almost 10% from two weeks in the past to $648.13/ton, with costs across the state starting from $590-$715/ton.

032621IllinoisBiWeeklyProductionCosts.jpg

Enter costs have steadily elevated alongside rising commodity costs over the previous six months. Rising vitality prices additionally play a job within the enter value climb. At any charge, farmers are seemingly transferring right into a market surroundings the place revenue margins will start to tighten and usually are not prone to shrink as shortly as income costs. Farmers might want to enhance advertising and marketing self-discipline and comply with by means of with executing sound advertising and marketing choices to make sure 2021/22 revenues can cowl these rising prices.

Because the Biden administration settles into workplace, laws freezing extra Coronavirus Meals Help Program funds have been lifted and farmers may seemingly obtain extra governmental help because of this.

Farm Futures coverage editor Jacqui Fatka estimates row crop producers may obtain as much as $20/acre extra in authorities aid by means of the CFAP 2 program, with further help for livestock producers. Fatka additionally outlines the newest plans for authorities support for farmers and biofuel producers within the newest DC Dialogue column.

The Ever Given stays lodged within the Suez Canal, costing billions of {dollars} per day in delivery delays and re-routed tankers. Power costs had been again on the rise at the moment in response to the delays. U.S. inventory futures inched up in a single day whilst buyers proceed to unload expertise shares in favor of different shares which are prone to profit from the pandemic’s financial restoration. A stronger greenback did little to spice up curiosity in U.S. items overseas. S&P 500 futures traded 0.22% greater to $3,909.00 ultimately look.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 3/26/2021
Contract Items Excessive Low Final Web Change % Change
MAY ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.485 5.44 5.4625 -0.0025 -0.05%
JUL ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.3475 5.295 5.3275 0.0025 0.05%
SEP ’21 CORN $ / BSH  4.845 4.805 4.83 0.0025 0.05%
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  4.67 4.63 4.65 -0.005 -0.11%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.7475 4.7125 4.73 -0.005 -0.11%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.79 4.7625 4.7875 0.0025 0.05%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  4.81 4.7775 4.81 0.0075 0.16%
MAY ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.19 14.09 14.1475 0.005 0.04%
JUL ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  14.0725 13.9975 14.0525 0.0075 0.05%
AUG ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  13.6025 13.545 13.6 0.015 0.11%
SEP ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6775 12.62 12.6675 0.02 0.16%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.1875 12.1175 12.165 0.0175 0.14%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.15 12.1 12.1375 0.0125 0.10%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.9725 11.925 11.9325 -0.02 -0.17%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.915 11.89 11.89 -0.025 -0.21%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  11.895 11.89 11.895 -0.0225 -0.19%
MAY ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 55.45 54.31 55.23 0.25 0.45%
JUL ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 52.56 51.52 52.37 0.19 0.36%
MAY ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 405.4 402.3 402.5 -2.1 -0.52%
JUL ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 406.2 403.2 403.5 -1.9 -0.47%
AUG ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 400 397.4 397.4 -1.6 -0.40%
SEP ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 389.3 388.3 388.5 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 376.2 374.3 374.8 -0.3 -0.08%
MAY ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.1725 6.0825 6.105 -0.02 -0.33%
JUL ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.1275 6.0475 6.07 -0.015 -0.25%
SEP ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.135 6.0575 6.08 -0.015 -0.25%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.1975 6.1275 6.145 -0.015 -0.24%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  6.2425 6.1775 6.215 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.6875 5.64 5.645 -0.0225 -0.40%
JUL ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.7475 5.7 5.71 -0.02 -0.35%
SEP ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.81 5.765 5.7725 -0.02 -0.35%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.895 5.86 5.8625 -0.025 -0.42%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  5.9675 5.94 5.95 -0.0125 -0.21%
MAY ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.185 6.1575 6.16 -0.015 -0.24%
JUL ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.28 6.2625 6.2675 -0.0025 -0.04%
SEP ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.35 6.33 6.33 -0.0125 -0.20%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.425 6.4175 6.4175 -0.0025 -0.04%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  6.475 6.475 6.475 0 0.00%
JUN ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 92.895 92.715 92.87 0.044 0.05%
 MA ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  60.16 58.32 59.86 1.3 2.22%
 JU ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  60.14 58.33 59.86 1.29 2.20%
APR ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.7916 1.7474 1.7906 0.0428 2.45%
MAY ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 1.7936 1.7473 1.7926 0.043 2.46%
APR ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.9609 1.9211 1.9519 0.031 1.61%
MAY ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 1.96 1.9176 1.9554 0.0358 1.86%
APR ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 144.225 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 149.125 0 0.00%
 AP ’21 Reside Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 119.55 0 0.00%
 JU ’21 Reside Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 121.075 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Reside Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 99.675 0 0.00%
MAY ’21 Reside Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 98.825 0 0.00%
MAR ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.18 #N/A 16.19 0 0.00%
APR ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 16.86 16.85 16.86 0.06 0.36%
MAY ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.32 #N/A 17.32 0 0.00%

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