Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for October 1, 2021

Morning Market Review for October 1, 2021

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Plus – all the pieces it is advisable find out about yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Shares report from USDA

  • Corn up 1-3 cents
  • Soybeans down 1-2 cents; Soymeal up $1.20/ton; Soyoil down $0.64/lb
  • Chicago & Kansas Metropolis wheat up 9-12 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 8-10 cents

*Costs as of 6:50am CDT.

Good Morning! How is harvest progressing in your farm? Inform us all about it! Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop circumstances to share your harvest progress (or searching plans!). Our Google Map, up to date every day, supplies all previous responses for farm readers, from farmers.

Corn

Grain markets consolidated in a single day within the wake of USDA’s Quarterly Grain Shares report yesterday. Eventually look, the complicated traded a penny larger after a wobbly night time of value motion that in the end ended within the inexperienced on energy from the wheat complicated. The report noticed 2020/21 corn shares improve regardless of downward revisions to 2020 manufacturing estimates.

However although present advertising yr futures costs proceed to waver between the crimson and inexperienced, 2022 crop futures continued to understand barely within the in a single day commerce because the market begins to sign a slight choice for corn acres in 2022.

USDA made a rating of corn steadiness sheet revisions yesterday that necessitated make modifications all the way in which again to fall 2020 manufacturing estimates.

Revised shares knowledge led USDA to chop 71 million bushels of corn from 2020 manufacturing values. 2020/21 ending provides got here in on the excessive finish of commerce expectations at 1.236 million bushels, nevertheless it was not excessive sufficient to set off a selloff, thanks largely to smaller starting 2020 shares.

Spring 2021 utilization charges had been larger than USDA indicated in its June 30 quarterly shares replace. Yesterday’s report noticed USDA slash 2.7 million bushels of off-farm shares, suggesting that fast export paces final spring had been probably extra brisk than markets had initially factored.

Bigger than anticipated outdated crop corn shares despatched Chicago corn futures barely decrease within the aftermath of the report’s launch. Factoring within the smaller 2020 crop and decrease utilization charges, the October WASDE report will probably present 121 million fewer bushels of corn utilization within the 2020/21 advertising yr.

It stays a toss-up over the place USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) will add in these bushels in its October 2021 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report later this month. Month-to-month corn utilization charges for ethanol manufacturing shall be launched by USDA right this moment and will present a sign if the current slowdown within the ethanol sector is a driving pressure behind the additional bushels.

Soybeans

Soybean futures dipped a penny per bushel within the in a single day buying and selling session because the market continues to reply to higher-than-expected inventory readings from yesterday’s USDA report. Futures hovered close to a nine-month low with little exterior assist.

USDA’s Quarterly Grain Shares report shocked markets yesterday after discovering 81 million extra bushels of outdated crop (2020/21) soybean bushels. The discovering bucked earlier market forecasts, which had been buying and selling on the prospects of the second-tightest ending crop provide on report previous to the info launch.

The 2020 soybean crop produced higher yields than USDA had initially forecasted based mostly on up to date utilization knowledge analyzed by the company’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service in yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Shares report.

Slower exporting and crush paces this previous spring had been re-factored into June 1 soybean inventory estimates in yesterday’s report. USDA added 2.5 million bushels of soybeans to June 1 shares, pointing to decrease utilization charges amid excessive costs and seasonal shifts in Chinese language export demand to cheaper Brazilian shares.

The uptick in provide alleviates value strain on the U.S. soy complicated. USDA’s present stocks-to-use (STU) ratio for the 2020/21 advertising marketing campaign stands at 3.9%, following solely 2013 (2.6%) because the second tightest on report. The 81-million-bushel 2020 soybean manufacturing improve would develop the outdated crop STU to five.7%, which is definitely solely the 11th tightest ending provide on report.

Primarily based on yesterday’s provide revisions, it’s probably that USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) will depart 2020/21 combination soybean utilization charges unchanged within the upcoming October 2021 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Close by soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Commerce fell $0.22-$0.27/bushel on the newfound provides. Futures contracts for the 2022 crop closed $0.10-$0.15/bushel decrease. Futures costs proceed to commerce comfortably above breakeven ranges for most growers throughout the Heartland.

However the drop, paired with concern over China’s export demand prospects within the coming weeks amid manufacturing facility closures on account of an vitality crunch, coaxed the market to purchase 2022 corn acres for the primary time since mid-July 2021.

Wheat

Wheat markets continued on an upward trajectory in a single day on slimming shares and a smaller 2021 crop, each of which got here in beneath analyst expectations in yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Shares and Small Grains Abstract studies from USDA. A weaker greenback added export optimism to the wheat complicated in a single day, sending costs $0.08-$0.12/bushel larger ultimately look.

Continued downward revisions to the U.S. wheat crop despatched futures costs in Chicago, Kansas Metropolis, and Minneapolis rallying up $0.12-$0.21/bushel after USDA launched the Quarterly Grain Shares report on Thursday.

USDA additionally added 1.4 million bushels to June 1 wheat shares, suggesting slower than anticipated utilization paces earlier this spring. The adjustment factors to barely bigger outdated crop ending shares, although amidst this yr’s drastic crop shortfall on account of drought within the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest, the adjustment will probably have little impression on tightening new crop wheat provides.

However the massive focus held regular on the 2021 Small Grains Abstract after Thursday’s studies. USDA reduce one other 51 million bushels of 2021 wheat manufacturing from August 2021 estimates, dropping 2021 manufacturing to 1.65 billion bushels. Exhausting crimson winter wheat (-27M bu.) and white wheat (-13M bu.) made up nearly all of USDA’s cuts.

Summer season 2021 wheat harvest got here in practically 10% smaller than the 2020 crop. Losses to the exhausting crimson spring wheat (233M bu.), white wheat (101M bu.), and durum wheat (32M bu.) overshadowed a mixed 185-million-bushel improve for exhausting and smooth crimson winter wheat crops this yr.

Continued downward revisions to the U.S. wheat crop despatched futures costs in Chicago, Kansas Metropolis, and Minneapolis rallying up $0.12-$0.21/bushel after USDA launched the Quarterly Grain Shares report on Thursday.

USDA additionally added 1.4 million bushels to June 1 wheat shares, suggesting slower than anticipated utilization paces earlier this spring. The adjustment factors to barely bigger outdated crop ending shares, although amidst this yr’s drastic crop shortfall on account of drought within the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest, the adjustment will probably have little impression on tightening new crop wheat provides.

USDA estimated Q1 21/22 U.S. wheat utilization at 846 million bushels. That is the very best absolute Q1 utilization fee since 2016/17 (857 million bushels). Quarterly wheat utilization charges usually are on the highest level within the first quarter, averaging 38% of annual utilization over the previous 5 years.

At present demand ranges, this yr’s Q1 consumption fee is at 41% of estimated new crop utilization – the very best degree reaching again to 2015/16 (43%). The opposite three quarters traditionally jockey for remaining utilization volumes at various charges leaving few clues about whether or not excessive consumption charges will proceed to development by the rest of 2021/22.

However rising livestock feeding and human consumption charges depart extra room for demand alternatives within the months forward even with a smaller crop. Advertising and marketing yr thus far export volumes are 19% decrease than the identical time final yr however even with peak export season already within the books, there may be nonetheless room for optimism.

Climate

A large rain system stretching from Canada to Mexico will proceed to cowl a lot of the U.S. Plains and Higher Midwest with moisture right this moment, in response to NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The system will drop anyplace between 1 / 4 and a full inch of precipitation on the areas over the following 24 hours, probably halting harvest progress throughout the Plains right this moment.

The slow-moving system will proceed to linger simply west of the Mississippi River till this night, when it can start to push east by the Nice Lakes States and Japanese Corn Belt. Anticipate rain delays in a lot of the Corn Belt by the weekend.

Financials

Coronavirus instances within the U.S. rose to 43,461,551 instances as of this morning in response to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The dying toll elevated to 697,868 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated towards the virus.

In keeping with the CDC, over 77% of U.S. adults have acquired at the least one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist enhance immunity charges. Over 185 million People (56%) are totally vaccinated. Over 6.2 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

It’s been a tough week for monetary markets and it’s unlikely that worries shall be eased in right this moment’s buying and selling session. Private consumption expenditure (PCE) knowledge anticipated to be launched right this moment will probably set off the Federal Reserve to cut back financial easing measures within the coming weeks.

The PCE knowledge is the Federal Reserve’s most well-liked indicator of inflation, which is anticipated to stay excessive in right this moment’s newest knowledge launch. The widespread uptick in inflation has been spurred alongside by provide chain logjams the world over and fast shifts in shopper shopping for patterns because of the pandemic.

International vitality provides have drastically tightened over the past six weeks as worldwide manufacturing struggles to maintain up with shifting shopper utilization patterns. China has closed factories for the previous week to preserve vitality provides and because it continues to pressure laws on its tech sector, international issues are rising a few doubtlessly slower than anticipated financial growth because the world begins to emerge from the pandemic.

China’s demand rationing trickled over into the vitality complicated in a single day, the place the West Texas Intermediate contract slipped beneath the $75/barrel benchmark. Brent futures are on monitor to report a weekly loss. China’s factories are slated to reopen after right this moment’s nationwide vacation, which might restrict vitality losses early in subsequent week’s buying and selling session.

The greenback shifted decrease following issues a few U.S. authorities shutdown that was averted in a single day. S&P 500 futures stared down the worst month of buying and selling for the reason that pandemic’s offset, however discount shopping for on the primary day of the brand new month lifted the index 0.28% larger to $4,309.75.

























































Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 10/1/2021
Contract Models Excessive Low Final Internet Change % Change
DEC ’21 CORN $ / BSH  5.39 5.32 5.3875 0.02 0.37%
MAR ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.47 5.4 5.4675 0.0225 0.41%
MAY ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.5175 5.45 5.5125 0.0225 0.41%
JUL ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.5175 5.4475 5.5125 0.0225 0.41%
SEP ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.3075 5.2425 5.3075 0.0275 0.52%
DEC ’22 CORN $ / BSH  5.2625 5.2025 5.2625 0.035 0.67%
MAR ’23 CORN $ / BSH  5.33 5.275 5.33 0.035 0.66%
NOV ’21 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.56 12.505 12.535 -0.025 -0.20%
JAN ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.6575 12.605 12.6275 -0.0275 -0.22%
MAR ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.7225 12.6725 12.7025 -0.0175 -0.14%
MAY ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.795 12.74 12.7775 -0.0075 -0.06%
JUL ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.8225 12.7675 12.8075 -0.01 -0.08%
AUG ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.75 12.72 12.75 -0.0025 -0.02%
SEP ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.53 12.5175 12.53 -0.005 -0.04%
NOV ’22 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.455 12.3925 12.4225 -0.015 -0.12%
JAN ’23 SOYBEANS $ / BSH  12.45 12.41 12.4475 -0.005 -0.04%
OCT ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 58.54 58.15 58.15 -0.64 -1.09%
DEC ’21 SOYBEAN OIL  $ / LB 58.84 58 58.13 -0.56 -0.95%
OCT ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 327.4 326.9 327.4 1.2 0.37%
DEC ’21 SOY MEAL $ / TON 331.8 328 330.5 1.8 0.55%
JAN ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 334 330.3 332.7 1.7 0.51%
MAR ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 336.7 333 335.4 2 0.60%
MAY ’22 SOY MEAL $ / TON 340.6 336.8 339.5 2.4 0.71%
DEC ’21 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.395 7.2275 7.365 0.11 1.52%
MAR ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.495 7.3375 7.4725 0.1075 1.46%
MAY ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.5125 7.3675 7.49 0.095 1.28%
JUL ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.2875 7.1925 7.28 0.065 0.90%
SEP ’22 Chicago SRW $ / BSH  7.2975 7.2075 7.29 0.06 0.83%
DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.43 7.28 7.4175 0.1 1.37%
MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.5 7.3575 7.4925 0.1 1.35%
MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.515 7.3825 7.5025 0.0875 1.18%
JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.35 7.2525 7.3275 0.0375 0.51%
SEP ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW $ / BSH  7.355 7.3 7.3375 0.035 0.48%
DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.2225 9.08 9.1925 0.0675 0.74%
MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  9.1 9.0075 9.1 0.1 1.11%
MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.9725 8.9025 8.9675 0.095 1.07%
JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.8025 #N/A 8.7125 0 0.00%
SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat $ / BSH  8.0025 7.9475 8.0025 0.0475 0.60%
DEC ’21 ICE Greenback Index $ 94.405 94.065 94.07 -0.17 -0.18%
 NO ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  75.57 74.23 74.76 -0.27 -0.36%
 DE ’21 Gentle Crude $ / BBL  75.21 73.92 74.41 -0.29 -0.39%
NOV ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.3517 2.3222 2.3368 -0.0017 -0.07%
DEC ’21 ULS Diesel $ /U GAL 2.3455 2.3157 2.3301 -0.0018 -0.08%
NOV ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.2084 2.1783 2.2072 0.0132 0.60%
DEC ’21 Gasoline $ /U GAL 2.1677 2.1419 2.1659 0.0098 0.45%
OCT ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 152.55 0 0.00%
NOV ’21 Feeder Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 152.9 0 0.00%
 OC ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 120.575 0 0.00%
 DE ’21 Stay Cattle $ / CWT 0 #N/A 125.725 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 91.6 0 0.00%
DEC ’21 Stay Hogs $ / CWT 0 #N/A 85.4 0 0.00%
OCT ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 18.23 18.03 18.11 0 0.00%
NOV ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 18.28 18.13 18.17 -0.09 -0.49%
DEC ’21 Class III Milk $ / CWT 17.94 17.84 17.84 -0.04 -0.22%

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