Home Farm Equipment Morning Market Review for September 10, 2021

Morning Market Review for September 10, 2021

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Grains little modified as markets await in the present day’s USDA experiences

  • Corn up 1-3 cents
  • Soybeans down 1-2 cents; Soymeal down $0.60/ton; Soyoil down $0.03/lb
  • Wheat down 1-2 cents

*Costs as of 6:50 am CDT.

Good Morning!  It’s one other chilly morning in Northwestern Illinois. It feels so much like fall – and you already know what which means! What number of days away are you from harvesting? Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop situations. Our Google Map, up to date each day, offers all previous responses for farm readers. Try our newest Feedback from the Field analysis to see the newest farmer feedback from across the nation.

Pleased WASDE day!

Farm Futures could have essentially the most up-to-date protection of in the present day’s experiences, so you’ll want to test in with us after USDA releases the info at 11am CDT. Try our web site (FarmFutures.com) or our social media platforms (@FarmFutures) for the most recent insights and evaluation!

For a full model of this text, click here.

USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service stunned markets final week when it introduced it might replace 2021 acreage estimates within the September Crop Manufacturing and World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates experiences.

In prior years, NASS has sometimes up to date acreage estimates within the October experiences. However NASS’s Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB) decided it had sufficient producer, acreage registration, satellite tv for pc, and market knowledge from USDA’s Farm Service Company and Danger Administration Company to replace the acreage estimates a month sooner than markets had been anticipating.

In response to a press launch from the ASB launched final week, “It is normal practice for NASS to review these data in September for cotton, peanuts, and rice. The review typically takes place in October for corn, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarbeets, however the data are sufficiently complete this year to consider adjustments in September.”

So buckle up, sports activities followers. At present’s knowledge updates may create fairly the stir within the markets!

Acreage & yield updates

Manufacturing will likely be prime of thoughts in in the present day’s experiences, particularly for corn. Well timed rains and average temperatures helped increase yield prospects in mid to late August, if knowledge late season crop excursions offers a common indication of USDA’s intentions for in the present day’s experiences. Early commerce estimates recommend a rise in corn yields and acreage, each of which might go a protracted methods in widening new crop corn provides.

Within the final eight buying and selling days, December 2022 corn futures have closed decrease in seven of these classes, dropping $0.4275/bushel since August 30. An enormous a part of decrease costs has been influenced by stalled exporting paces within the Gulf of Mexico attributable to injury from Hurricane Ida.

The prospect of bigger corn provides will doubtless do little to stop this bleeding, as Farm Futures contributing analyst Bryce Knorr outlines in a latest Ag Advertising and marketing IQ column. And with fertilizer costs climbing, farmers might wish to spend in the present day locking in 2022 enter pricing. Or inspecting the feasibility of different crop rotations for 2022.

Home shares to rise

U.S. 2021-22 Ending Stocks

Provides would be the prime issue influencing complete ending shares – and costs – in in the present day’s experiences, however there are a number of demand elements to observe as nicely. Previous crop (2020/21) corn and soybean inventory volumes is not going to be made official till the September 30 Quarterly Grain Shares report.

If extra corn bushels and acres are present in in the present day’s report, corn costs may slip under $5/bushel. However Complete Farm Advertising and marketing’s Naomi Blohm provides extra sound metrics for farmers to gauge their expectations for in the present day’s experiences within the newest Ag Marketing IQ column.

“If ending stocks come in higher than 1.329 billion bushels, that will likely continue to weigh on corn futures prices and ending stocks will be perceived to be growing,” Blohm advises. “If ending stocks come in larger than 1.5 billion bushels, watch out for a price wash out.”

“However, if the USDA makes very few adjustments on this report, which is expected to be bearish, and if ending stocks come in smaller than 1.329 billion bushels, that would be a reason for new crop corn futures to potentially find strong support at the $5 price range, and a harvest low.”

The outlook for soybeans favors farmers greater than that of corn. Previous crop provides are more likely to stay little modified as home manufacturing and exports stay idle amid dwindling countryside shares. New crop provides are anticipated to develop on the heels of extra optimistic yield projections, although sturdy home processing and export targets will doubtless snap up any further bushels that come on-line.

That can doubtless hold new crop soybean shares tight for one other advertising 12 months. Soybean costs are at decrease threat for main worth fluctuations in in the present day’s report than these of corn consequently.

Wheat shares are more likely to tighten in in the present day’s report, although the latest export slowdown within the U.S. Gulf attributable to injury from Hurricane Ida may alter USDA’s export estimates for wheat – in addition to soybeans and corn – within the newest knowledge replace.

Tightening wheat shares in 2021/22 will increase profitability estimates for wheat crops in 2022, particularly contemplating the worldwide crop shortfalls skilled by prime exporters Russia, the European Union, america, and Canada this 12 months. That would additionally shift 2022 acreage projections to favor soybeans and wheat over corn.

Modifications to world shares

World 2021-22 Ending stocks

U.S. shares will drive nearly all of world inventory modifications in in the present day’s WASDE report for corn and soybeans.

We’re nonetheless a couple of weeks away from seeing planting progress start in South America. Brazil is anticipated to reap a record-setting 5.3 billion bushels of soybeans subsequent 12 months, which might go a protracted methods in assuaging world provide pressures on the soy advanced.

USDA attachés in India recommend that rising feed costs may set off greater soymeal import charges within the 201/22 advertising 12 months. And an attaché in Beijing estimates 2021/22 soy imports for China will doubtless stay unchanged from final month’s WASDE report at 3.7 billion bushels, up almost 147 million bushels from final 12 months’s charges.

Commerce estimates are comparatively impartial on potential modifications to world wheat shares, however it’s one thing that I will likely be preserving a detailed eye on in the present day. With wheat harvests within the Northern Hemisphere largely wrapped up, manufacturing estimates is not going to doubtless see vital shifts like in final month’s WASDE.

However greater costs may shift livestock demand for feed wheat again to corn on the world scale. Tight world wheat provides have a extra inelastic impression on costs. Given the challenges world wheat manufacturing has confronted this 12 months, I’m more likely to discover any modifications to world wheat manufacturing and utilization patterns vital going ahead, particularly as 2022 acreage selections are at present being made within the U.S. Plains and Pacific Northwest.

USDA World Production

Corn

Corn costs inched up this morning, up $0.01-$0.02/bushel forward of in the present day’s experiences. Export capability is slowing coming again on-line within the Gulf of Mexico after injury from Hurricane Ida compelled a number of export terminals offline over the previous two weeks.

Soybeans

Decrease forecasts for pig manufacturing in China in a single day weighed on soy markets as Chicago futures fell $0.01-$0.02/bushel main as much as in the present day’s USDA experiences.

Wheat

Wheat costs are on observe to notch a seven-week low in the present day, following weak spot within the corn and soybean advanced decrease on easing world grain provide issues. Rising manufacturing forecasts in Australia and Argentina are a key contributor to that issue, which may assist offset crop shortfalls within the Northern Hemisphere this summer season.

Climate

One other day of clear skies are forecast for the Heartland in the present day and tomorrow, based on NOAA’s short-range forecasts. A storm system creating within the Northern Rockies may push rain into the Northern Plains and Higher Midwest by Sunday.

Temperatures are going to warmth up on the Plains in the present day because the thermometer approaches the 100-degree mark in some areas. Count on a hotter weekend within the Corn Belt, whereas the Northern Plains usually tend to see seasonally cooler temperatures.

Financials

Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 40,605,686 circumstances as of this morning based on the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The demise toll elevated to 654,618 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated in opposition to the virus.

In response to the CDC, over 75% of U.S. adults have obtained a minimum of one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist increase immunity charges. Over 177 million People (53%) are totally vaccinated. Over 5.6 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.

U.S. inventory futures drifted greater in a single day following a cellphone name between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese language President Xi Jinping, which signaled advancing diplomatic relations between the world’s two largest economies. It eased investor concern about lingering unease between the 2 international locations following years of geopolitical squabbles through the Trump Administration. S&P 500 futures rose 0.43% to $4,502.50.

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