Regardless of expectations for smaller corn, wheat shares, grain costs have been little modified in a single day as markets await contemporary knowledge
- Corn up 1-2 cents
- Soybeans combined; Soymeal down $1.90/ton; Soyoil up $0.58/lb
- Chicago & Kansas Metropolis wheat up 3-4 cents; Minneapolis wheat up 3-5 cents
*Costs as of 6:50am CDT.
Good Morning! I obtained my first report that corn harvest has been accomplished for the 2021 season! To make certain, harvest continues to be nicely underway in most areas of the nation. However a central Illinois reader shared that the corn harvest wrapped up in superb style.
Corn yields have been reported at 257 bushels/acre with check weights negatively impacted by tar spot. “We were on the cusp of the best crop ever,” reported the grower. “[We] likely [received] too much rain in June and July.”
It was a “highly variable crop.” However sound administration paid off amid unfavorable climate circumstances this summer time. “Fungicide [is] paying big dividends,” the producer famous.
How is harvest progressing in your farm? Inform us all about it! Click here to take our ongoing Feedback from the Field survey on 2021 crop circumstances to share your harvest progress (or searching plans!). Our Google Map, up to date day by day, offers all previous responses for farm readers, from farmers.
USDA releases its Quarterly Grain Shares report at the moment: Smaller wheat shares are extensively anticipated due to crop shortfalls within the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest earlier this summer time. Soybeans shares are prone to stay unchanged from the September WASDE and there’s a likelihood corn shares could possibly be trimmed.
Here’s a shortened preview, modified from a piece I published yesterday. Our reside protection of the report will start at the moment as quickly because the report is launched at 11 am CST. Watch our web site, FarmFutures.com, or our Twitter feed, @FarmFutures, for all the newest information and evaluation.
Corn utilization charges entice principal market focus
As of the September 10 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, USDA tasks 2020/21 ending corn inventory volumes at 1,186 million bushels. That complete widened as ethanol manufacturing charges and corn export charges slowed within the waning days of the 2020/21 advertising and marketing yr, which ended on August 31.
Right this moment’s corn shares quantity shall be extremely dependent upon utilization charges over the previous three months. The common commerce guess means that about 30 million extra bushels of utilization must be factored into the newest WASDE ending shares worth however the place will that come from?
Extra clear steerage on that probably gained’t come till the October 2021 WASDE report subsequent month. Dismal ethanol manufacturing charges over the past two months scale back the chance of ethanol utilization as a supply. 12 months-to-date cattle inventories are fractionally (1%) decrease than the identical volumes this time final yr.
USDA lower 105 million bushels from 2020/21 corn export forecasts between July and September on lower-than-expected late season loading paces. Not coincidentally, U.S. corn exports to China tapered off in July and August because it harvested a bigger corn and wheat crop.
If commerce estimates are realized, 2020/21 ending shares at the moment on the fourth tightest degree (7.9% stocks-to-use ratio) on report would chop to the third tightest and compete with 2012 (7.4%) for the second tightest. That would create some profitable money alternatives for growers in areas the place harvest has not progressed as quickly.
Little change anticipated for soybeans
It’s no secret that soybean shares are tight – and can probably stay that approach for a while. At a present stocks-to-use ratio of three.9%, 2020/21 U.S. soybean shares are at the moment on the second tightest on report, trailing solely 2013 (2.6%). However will that change at the moment?
The commerce is skeptical it would. USDA’s present ending soy shares estimate of 175 million bushels is in step with market estimates for at the moment’s report.
However keep in mind that since June, USDA has discovered 56 million extra bushels of previous crop soybeans within the type of unrealized crush manufacturing. A greater-than-expected August crush may draw down USDA’s determine at the moment.
At any charge, with sturdy international soyoil demand and growing home biodiesel manufacturing capability, count on one other yr of tight provides for the soybean market. Export markets are already heating up, particularly because the Gulf emerges from Hurricane Ida flooding and wind injury.
Within the occasion Chinese language demand lags on falling hog costs this yr, count on home crush processors to be the primary in line to snap up these new crop bushels.
It’s not unprecedented that USDA may even make modifications to prior quarters’ inventory volumes. When you recall again to a yr in the past, the broad market rally was largely spurred by revised inventory readings of prior quarters, not solely due to the up to date third quarter shares readings.
USDA usually receives extra correct shares and utilization info after releasing the quarterly experiences. This was particularly prevalent throughout peak pandemic months final yr. So don’t rule out further modifications in at the moment’s experiences.
Wheat provides shrink
Along with utilization charges, USDA will launch up to date estimates on 2021 wheat manufacturing at the moment. Historic droughts within the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest (to not point out the Canadian prairies) stunted the white, spring, and durum wheat crops within the area.
Because of this, provides are prone to tighten to at the very least the tightest ranges since 2013/14. However of extra curiosity at the moment could also be USDA’s utilization charges for the primary quarter of the 2021/22 advertising and marketing yr.
Peak export season is about to wrap up for the U.S. wheat market. Advertising yr up to now wheat shipments are 18% decrease than the identical time a yr in the past. To make certain, the tight provide state of affairs and a rally within the greenback have made U.S. wheat a much less enticing choice on the worldwide market. And Hurricane Ida injury on the Gulf of Mexico definitely put a dent in wheat loading paces throughout peak loading occasions.
However will smaller provides offset decrease export loading paces? Right this moment’s report will present extra perception on that matter. Meals consumption charges for wheat within the U.S. have been elevated barely in final month’s WASDE report. And USDA’s prime economists count on extra wheat to be fed to livestock within the U.S. this yr than final.
Corn will undisputedly seize the highest headlines in at the moment’s report. However don’t sleep on wheat. The world’s prime exporters are all below provide stress this yr, which may create some distinctive low season export alternatives for U.S. wheat.
Corn costs inched up by $0.01/bushel this morning forward of USDA’s Quarterly Grain Shares report. As close by Chicago futures costs for the December 2022 contract hovered close to the $5.40/bushel mark, market watchers noticed it was the very best value degree realized for the contract in 4 weeks.
“The report should show a substantial, but unsurprising, rundown in U.S. (corn) inventory,” Tobin Gorey, director of agricultural technique at Commonwealth Financial institution of Australia, instructed Reuters this morning.
Harvest stress and higher than anticipated yields in prime producing areas prevented futures costs from rising extra quickly.
Soybean futures wavered between the crimson and inexperienced this morning with 2021 crop contracts rising $0.01/bushel and 2022 costs displaying indicators of a $0.01-$0.02/bushel loss. Little market motion is anticipated for soybeans in at the moment’s USDA experiences, although markets stay more and more involved about rising feed prices in China amid manufacturing facility shutdowns to manage air pollution.
Feed prices in China proceed to rise as government-mandated manufacturing facility energy outages maintain soybean processing services shuttered. A Reuters report estimates half of China’s crush vegetation within the northern and northeastern areas closed final week and can stay inoperable till Saturday.
Rising hog provides have pushed pork costs decrease in China, so the sharp spike in feed prices additional erodes producers’ revenue margins. The electrical crunch additionally raises potential issues about China’s progress forecasts and if piglet numbers may have been trimmed over the previous week on account of hunger.
Wheat costs rose $0.03-$0.05/bushel this morning on prospects of tightening U.S. provides in at the moment’s USDA experiences. International demand stays regular as international wheat provides develop more and more constrained following huge crop shortfalls throughout the Northern Hemisphere this summer time.
An enormous rain system stretching from Canada to Mexico will cowl a lot of the U.S. Plains with moisture at the moment, in accordance with NOAA’s short-range forecasts. The system will drop anyplace between 1 / 4 and a full inch of precipitation on the area over the following 24 hours, probably halting harvest progress throughout the Plains at the moment.
The slow-moving system will proceed to linger simply west of the Mississippi River till tomorrow night, when it would start to push east by means of the Nice Lakes States and Japanese Corn Belt.
Coronavirus circumstances within the U.S. rose to 43,350,990 circumstances as of this morning in accordance with the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The loss of life toll elevated to 695,123 deaths as of press time because the pandemic continues to deal devastating blows to people unvaccinated in opposition to the virus.
In response to the CDC, over 77% of U.S. adults have obtained at the very least one COVID-19 vaccine as office mandates assist enhance immunity charges. Over 185 million People (56%) are absolutely vaccinated. Over 6.2 billion vaccine doses have been administered worldwide.
The U.S. authorities prevented a shutdown final evening, propping up beneficial properties on Wall Road this morning. The Federal Reserve continues to carry regular on its rhetoric that present ranges of excessive inflation are momentary. Fed chairman Jerome Powell was joined European Central Financial institution president Christine Lagarde yesterday in reiterating the sentiment of transitory inflation. S&P 500 futures rose 0.28% to $4,362.00 on the emotions.
|Morning Ag Commodity Costs – 9/30/2021|
|Contract||Items||Excessive||Low||Final||Internet Change||% Change|
|DEC ’21 CORN||$ / BSH||5.4125||5.3775||5.4||0.01||0.19%|
|MAR ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.49||5.455||5.48||0.01||0.18%|
|MAY ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.5325||5.5||5.5275||0.01||0.18%|
|JUL ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.5275||5.495||5.52||0.005||0.09%|
|SEP ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.265||5.24||5.265||0.0075||0.14%|
|DEC ’22 CORN||$ / BSH||5.215||5.175||5.215||0.015||0.29%|
|MAR ’23 CORN||$ / BSH||5.275||5.2475||5.275||0.0075||0.14%|
|NOV ’21 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.8625||12.8025||12.8375||0||0.00%|
|JAN ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.9575||12.9025||12.93||-0.005||-0.04%|
|MAR ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.0075||12.9575||12.98||-0.005||-0.04%|
|MAY ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.0575||13.0075||13.0325||-0.0075||-0.06%|
|JUL ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||13.07||13.0275||13.05||-0.0075||-0.06%|
|AUG ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.965||12.945||12.945||-0.0225||-0.17%|
|SEP ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.68||12.675||12.675||-0.0175||-0.14%|
|NOV ’22 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.5425||12.51||12.5375||-0.0075||-0.06%|
|JAN ’23 SOYBEANS||$ / BSH||12.54||#N/A||12.5475||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||58.36||57.78||58.36||0.58||1.00%|
|DEC ’21 SOYBEAN OIL||$ / LB||58.53||57.69||58.27||0.44||0.76%|
|OCT ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||337.9||336.1||336.2||-1.9||-0.56%|
|DEC ’21 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||341.3||339.1||339.2||-2||-0.59%|
|JAN ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||343.6||341.6||341.7||-1.9||-0.55%|
|MAR ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||345.5||343.6||343.7||-1.8||-0.52%|
|MAY ’22 SOY MEAL||$ / TON||348.5||346.7||347.1||-1.4||-0.40%|
|DEC ’21 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.1625||7.0725||7.1425||0.04||0.56%|
|MAR ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.28||7.195||7.2675||0.045||0.62%|
|MAY ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.3225||7.24||7.305||0.0375||0.52%|
|JUL ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.13||7.0625||7.12||0.0275||0.39%|
|SEP ’22 Chicago SRW||$ / BSH||7.1425||7.08||7.1325||0.02||0.28%|
|DEC ’21 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.1725||7.0975||7.1475||0.03||0.42%|
|MAR ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.2475||7.18||7.23||0.03||0.42%|
|MAY ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.2825||7.23||7.27||0.0325||0.45%|
|JUL ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.1225||7.085||7.085||-0.02||-0.28%|
|SEP ’22 Kansas Metropolis HRW||$ / BSH||7.125||7.125||7.125||0||0.00%|
|DEC ’21 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||9.0925||9.0275||9.0725||0.0375||0.42%|
|MAR ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.95||8.9075||8.95||0.0475||0.53%|
|MAY ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.8075||#N/A||8.7725||0||0.00%|
|JUL ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||8.6375||#N/A||8.6125||0||0.00%|
|SEP ’22 MLPS Spring Wheat||$ / BSH||7.84||7.84||7.84||0||0.00%|
|DEC ’21 ICE Greenback Index||$||94.52||94.25||94.43||0.077||0.08%|
|NO ’21 Mild Crude||$ / BBL||75.39||74.18||74.24||-0.59||-0.79%|
|DE ’21 Mild Crude||$ / BBL||75.04||73.88||73.94||-0.56||-0.75%|
|OCT ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.3279||2.313||2.3279||0.0204||0.88%|
|NOV ’21 ULS Diesel||$ /U GAL||2.3341||2.3074||2.3092||0.0045||0.20%|
|OCT ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.2448||2.221||2.221||-0.0083||-0.37%|
|NOV ’21 Gasoline||$ /U GAL||2.1925||2.1642||2.1663||-0.0087||-0.40%|
|SEP ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||154.275||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Feeder Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||154.625||0||0.00%|
|OC ’21 Dwell Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||121.775||0||0.00%|
|DE ’21 Dwell Cattle||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||127.05||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Dwell Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||90.8||0||0.00%|
|DEC ’21 Dwell Hogs||$ / CWT||0||#N/A||83.6||0||0.00%|
|OCT ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.96||17.87||17.96||0.09||0.50%|
|NOV ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.98||17.85||17.98||0.1||0.56%|
|DEC ’21 Class III Milk||$ / CWT||17.65||17.64||17.65||0.09||0.51%|
Get our prime content material delivered proper to your inbox. Subscribe to our morning and afternoon newsletters!