There’s by no means a uninteresting second in the fertilizer market and it’s laborious to not surprise what will likely be in retailer for producers for the 2022 crop yr.
Josh Linville, director of fertilizer at StoneX lately joined Shaun Haney on RealAg Radio to debate the fertilizer markets, together with what’s taking place with tariffs.
Throughout Linville’s final dialog, he and Haney mentioned tariffs towards Moroccan and Russian phosphate merchandise and since then, these tariffs have been put into place. Now, there are countering lawsuits from Mosaic, suing the U.S. authorities saying that the responsibility charges are too low, and on behalf of the Moroccans and Russians, saying the responsibility charges are too excessive, says Linville.
“We have to assume that this situation is going to drag on for awhile,” says Linville, “the longer it drags out there’s going to be two winners — it’s going to be the producer in the U.S. and it’s going to be the lawyers.”
After all, this impacts worth. As of lately the U.S. market has gone to a premium versus quite a lot of the world spots, he explains, which could be a mechanism for the U.S. to point to the remainder of the world that they want extra phosphate.
What’s subsequent? For the 2022 crop, it’s all about enter worth escalation and the right way to handle margins. Linville is seeing considerably greater fertilizer costs than 12 months in the past, and for quite a lot of the autumn/spring utility season, farmers didn’t see true substitute costs, retailers weren’t passing that worth alongside. Now that it’s summer season, that’s the time for a reset, says Linville, fearing fairly a little bit of sticker shock.
Will fertilizer costs go down? Take heed to the complete interview under, for Linville’s clarification: