Statistics Canada launched its up to date acreage estimates for 2021 on Tuesday morning, most of which have been in line with expectations.
Most notably, StatsCan boosted its canola acreage estimate to 22.48 million acres, up from 21.53 million in its April acreage report. 12 months-over-year, that’s an 8.2 per cent enhance in canola acres, largely pushed by sturdy costs.
The rise in canola space is barely part of the equation for the canola market proper now, notes Brian Voth, CEO of IntelliFarm.
“With the hot and dry temperatures across most of western Canada, seeing an average yield is really being brought into question,” says Voth. “Even with a five-year average yield, the canola balance sheet would still have been tight, but if that yield starts coming down by a bushel per acre or more, we will need to see some heavy demand cutting once again, similar to the past year.”
Wheat acreage, together with durum, was pegged at 23.36 million acres, virtually unchanged from 23.26 million in April, and down 6.5 per cent from 2020.
Grain corn space took a slight hit, down from 3.62 million acres in the April report to three.47 million in the June report.
Barley acres have been additionally down from the April report, coming in at 8.30 million versus the April estimate of 8.61 million — nonetheless properly above final yr’s acreage of seven.56 million.
As for oats, StatsCan tweaked its estimate from 3.61 million acres in April to three.42 million in Tuesday’s report.
Soybean acres, in the meantime, have been estimated at 5.32 million acres, down from 5.35 million in April.
Within the specialty market, canary seed was projected at 314 thousand acres, up 15 per cent from final yr, whereas StatsCan says chickpea acres have declined by 38 per cent from final yr, right down to 186 thousand acres.
Normally, Voth says most crops grown in Canada – with a few exceptions — don’t have a lot of a buffer going into this harvest, giving little room for manufacturing issues.
“That is certainly looking like it is going to be an issue at this point, suggesting Canada will have much less usable stocks than normal, after already seeing below average stocks from the past year,” he says. “If our issues are compounded by production problems in the U.S., it could be another year like 2012, and the function of price will be to ration demand and encourage production in 2022.”
Take a look at the complete report, right here.