New outcomes from the August 2021 Farm Futures survey discover that U.S. row crop farmers are wanting to money in on worthwhile commodity prices and can possible proceed to broaden acreage into the following advertising and marketing 12 months.
The survey, which gathered 737 producer responses through e-mail questionnaire from growers throughout the nation between July 13-August 1, discovered that farmers estimate they are going to plant 94.3 million acres of corn in 2022.
Although December 2022 corn futures prices are properly off highs set this previous spring, the present value at press time (about $5.17/bu.) affords an optimistic outlook on 2022 profitability. However, there are not any ensures markets will reward that optimism in 2022.
Utilizing USDA trendline yields of 182.5 bushels per acre (bpa) for the 2022 crop, that will place 2022 manufacturing at 15.69 billion bushels, besting 2016’s document haul of 15.15 billion bushels. Utilizing present 2021/22 corn utilization charges of 14.65 billion bushels, the bigger crop would practically double ending shares, that are slated to complete 2.31 billion bushels.
That ends in a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.8%, double the present 8.5% estimate for 2021/22. If realized, it might be the biggest stocks-to-use ratio U.S. corn ending shares have skilled since 2005. That may be an entire reversal of the 2 latest years of tight provides following crop shortfalls (2020/21 – 7.4%, 2021/22 – 8.5%).
The enhance to provides might weigh corn prices decrease in the course of the 2022/23 advertising and marketing 12 months. In fact, demand elements can change between now and subsequent spring, which might trigger an acreage shift past the intentions shared within the 2022 Farm Futures survey.
Soybean acreage to rise 4% in 2022
The Farm Futures survey predicts farmers will plant 90.8 million acres of soybeans in 2022. If realized, that will be a 3.2-million-acre improve from 2021 sowings and will prime 2017’s document sowings of 90.2 million acres as the biggest on document.
Will the additional acres lastly present aid after two consecutive years of tight soybean shares? Perhaps.
Utilizing USDA trendline yields of 51.2 bpa and replicating 2021/22 demand estimates of 4.38 billion bushels for the 2022/23 marketing campaign, U.S. soy growers might produce as much as 4.59 billion bushels of soybeans in 2022 – a brand new document excessive, if realized.
The additional bushels will surely go an extended option to reduce provide pressures on international soybean flows. It will improve the stocks-to-use ratio for U.S. soybean ending shares to eight.8% in 2022/23, up from the present forecast of three.5% for 2021/22, which stands because the third tightest ending quantity on document.
However carryout would solely improve to 32 days in 2022/23, up from 13 days in 2021/22. That’s considerably extra snug than present advertising and marketing 12 months estimates, however remains to be tight. New crop prices are more likely to stay worthwhile, however the expectation of better provides might depreciate new crop prices within the coming 12 months.
Wheat acreage to broaden 6% in 2022
The August 2021 Farm Futures producer survey discovered farmers plan to plant 35.4 million acres of winter wheat for harvest and 14.3 million acres of spring wheat and durum acres in 2022. The entire mixed planted wheat acreage forecasted by Farm Futures stands at 49.7 million acres. Two years after U.S. wheat growers planted the smallest wheat acreage in historical past (44.3 million acres in 2020), growers plan to extend complete planted wheat acres by an astounding 5.4 million acres.
If trendline yields of 49.5 bushels per acre are harvested, the U.S. might see the primary wheat crop totaling over 2 billion bushels since 2016’s haul of two.31 billion bushels. Farm Futures forecasts practically 2.02 billion bushels of wheat will probably be harvested within the 2022 marketing campaign, over 320 million bushels greater than present estimates for the 2021 crop. Even with greater manufacturing forecasted, shares are more likely to stay at tight ranges amid robust international wheat demand.
Farm Futures estimates 2022/23 wheat utilization to complete 2.13 billion bushels due largely to greater export targets. The utilization price, which would be the highest since 2016/17, will possible devour all new manufacturing that comes on-line within the new 12 months, shrinking 2022/23 ending shares to 632 million bushels with a stock-to-use ratio of 29.6%.
USDA presently estimates 2021/22 ending stocks-to-use at 30.4%. Provides will possible stay plentiful over the following two years, but when 2022 projections are realized, will probably be the tightest crop for the reason that 2013/14 advertising and marketing 12 months.