Home Crop Monitoring Short crop and killing demand — the bull is loose on canola

Short crop and killing demand — the bull is loose on canola

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It doesn’t matter what the costs are when you’ve got no crop to promote.

That’s a tough reality that Neil Townsend, of FarmLink Advertising Options, shares on this week’s Wednesday version of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio 147, Sirius XM.

There’s going to be low numbers on canola, wheat, barley, you title it, he says. Even on the excessive finish of yield estimates, it’s nonetheless low.

“We are in the realm where we have to kill demand, but how much demand do we have to kill?” he asks.

There’s one terminal worth the place demand begins to die-off dramatically, however what is that worth? That, Townsend doesn’t have that reply for.

We now have been shocked earlier than by closing manufacturing numbers earlier than, however this 12 months it simply feels that estimates are extra in keeping with what is really on the market. There are pockets of respectable crop, nevertheless it’s unlikely sufficient to actually pull up the typical.

For the market, as soon as we slip under 18 million tonnes of canola — and FarmLink is there — it’s sport on, he says.

“It’s going to be even tighter than our worst imagination,” says Townsend. “And we need to make significant demand cuts on off-shore demand to ration this crop.”

Hear your complete interview on RealAg Radio, beginning on the 17:00 minute mark.

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