It’s a giant day when the Statistics Canada acreage report is launched for all the main subject crops in Canada.
To grasp if the numbers are above or under expectations, Shaun Haney is joined by Jon Driedger, grain market analyst with LeftField Commodity Analysis.
To start out the dialog off, canola acres are up from final 12 months, however maybe that quantity is under the place some analysts thought it might be.
“Long story short, it comes in at about 21.5 million, really below the range of trade estimates coming in,” says Driedger. “I think the average expectation was around 22.5-ish, give or take.”
simply canola value, canola acres needs to be someplace between 24 to 25 million acres, however after all agronomic and rotational concerns, in addition to the worth of different crops., may have factored into the low quantity. Present new crop costs look good, so it makes it simpler to remain sincere to the rotation, or seed one thing extra suited to drier situations (hiya, mustard!).
Whereas canola was up 3.6 per cent from final 12 months’s quantity, spring wheat is slumping down 8.8 per cent for 16.34 million acres forecasted. Driedger isn’t stunned by this quantity since wheat acres would take the brunt and would lose across the margins — it form of turns into the sufferer of the place acres bleed out, he says.
Earlier than pondering that every one cereals are dropping out this 12 months although, barley acres are up 13.9 per cent, for a complete forecasted 8.6 million acres.
“In some ways we were hearing that barley acres were going to be up, and I think certainly, the market was providing a real strong incentive for farmers to plant barley, and I think in many ways it probably makes a lot of sense,” says Driedger. “It’s one that farmers are confident selling aggressively ahead of time — you maybe get good fall movement. You can grow it, sell it, move it — and so from a farm marketing perspective, it’s a good opportunity.”
Hear the total dialog between Driedger and RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney, story continues under participant:
From a Western Canadian perspective, Statistics Canada says Manitoba soybean producers will plant extra acres this 12 months — up 17.3 per cent from final 12 months, again to 1.3 million acres. Driedger isn’t shocked by this quantity both, saying it’s fairly a bit lower than what was grown just a few years in the past, and is perhaps repairing the “deep loss” of seeded acres.
Lentil acres are flat in comparison with final 12 months, which is near what LeftField Commodity Analysis thought they’d be. Fewer reds will doubtless get planted this 12 months and we’ll see a bump in inexperienced lentils, though the breakdown of every isn’t offered within the report, says Driedger. Chickpea and subject pea acres are additionally down fairly a bit, however that would spell good costs for peas.