Home Crop Monitoring Western drought holding pattern will need something significant to break it

Western drought holding pattern will need something significant to break it

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With the beginning of summer time, and hot-hot-hot temperatures throughout the Prairies, it’s received many asking: will we see any rain?

To assist us deal with that query is Drew Lerner, of World Climate Inc.

Lerner says the final time we noticed this dry climate bias pattern — fairly related to the one we’re seeing proper now — was again in 2003. The distinction between 2003 and this yr nonetheless, is that now we have an additional yr of dryness behind us that we’re coping with.

“We’re in our fourth year of droughty weather in some parts of the Prairies. That makes a big difference. In 2003 we had a 2001/2002 event that preceded it, but it didn’t seem to be quite as extreme as we are right now,” says Lerner. “There are a lot of similarities between the two years, and with a pattern that we are seeing prevailing in the atmosphere, I think we can look at 2003, and come to some conclusion about where we are going down the road.”

The opposite years we will check out intently and see a variety of similarities to is 1967, and 1985. Understanding the historical past and the patterns is after all vital, however it’s received many questioning, “OK, but how do we break this pattern? What needs to happen?”

“The unfortunate part of this is that there’s not a lot of good reason for the pattern to break. We’ve got basically a ridge of high pressure that continues to build stronger periodically over western North America in response to the drought itself,” Lerner notes. “Just merely the fact that we have so much dry real estate from Canada to Mexico has created what we call a thermal low — and what that means is we’ve heated up the air and the ground very quickly in these areas, so that a broad base of area of basically low pressure has evolved, where the air is rising dramatically over all that area. And with all of that rising air, you’re getting the air to also heat up and dry down at the same time, so the end result is that you’re building a high pressure system a lot in this environment. Until we can do something to bring large amounts of moisture into this environment, the whole mechanics supporting the high ridge of high pressure are going to remain.”

Lengthy story brief — we need a big storm system to are available, something that will “break” the ridge and the pattern we’ve received happening. The opposite possibility — albeit a much less possible possibility, however nonetheless there — is bringing monsoon moisture up by means of Mexico into the U.S. Rocky Mountains, and into the Prairies.

Sadly, for any of this to occur, we’ll possible have to anticipate some seasonal adjustments to happen, says Lerner.

“As we forward into June, July, and August, the thing that happens is the jet stream goes further into the north, it gets weaker, and the weaker it gets, the more difficult it is to get a storm system of size to come in and slam against that ridge and break it down. The unfortunate part is, we may have to wait awhile for any serious breakdown to take place,” Learner explains.

One of many methods we will mange by means of this ready interval is decrease temperatures. As we all know effectively, the moisture disappears at a fast price after we get above that 35 levels celsius. So far as what the group at World Climate Inc is anticipating this yr, the ridge goes to be extra sturdy — bigger in measurement, better amplitudes, better breadths to it — it’s going to be a lot more durable to get it to break down.

“If you’ve noticed, we keep bouncing back and forth. We go real cool, and then we go back to hot again. That is indicative of this drought. The low humidity in the air by allowing the temperatures to drop and rise very quickly, because there is no moisture there to act as a buffer. There is still potential that we could cool down, but my concern as we go deeper into the summer and all that heat rises up off the Rocky Mountains and the Great Basin of the U.S., and the ridge just ends up being stubborn or persistent, it’s going to be really hard to get more of that cool air to come in as often as we’ve been seeing it,” Lerner says.

The little bit of fine information amongst all of this: if you’re in japanese Saskatchewan or Manitoba — additional away from the Rocky Mountains — you might be possible to see a few of these cooler temperatures.

Take a look at the total dialog between RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Drew Lerner, under:

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