Home Farm Equipment Wheat takes center stage in July WASDE

Wheat takes center stage in July WASDE

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As drought continues to take a toll on spring wheat situation in the Northern Plains and high quality points start to plague exhausting crimson winter wheat farmers in the Central and Southern Plains after bountiful rains in latest weeks, USDA took as we speak’s month-to-month World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report back to concentrate on trimming home wheat output and utilization.

USDA trimmed 152 million bushels, or 8%, from June 2021 manufacturing estimates to deliver whole U.S. wheat output in 2021/22 to 1.75 billion bushels. Futures contracts in Chicago, Kansas Metropolis and Minneapolis traded 1.5-2.5% increased as world shares for the 2021/22 advertising and marketing 12 months shrunk 1%.

A smaller-than-expected discount to Brazil’s crop and larger-than-anticipated 2021 U.S. corn manufacturing erased among the morning’s positive aspects in the corn complicated following the report’s launch. U.S. soybean shares remained unchanged for each the present and new crop advertising and marketing years, however excessive world manufacturing is prone to ease provide availability in the upcoming advertising and marketing season, paring the morning’s positive aspects.

 

Corn

USDA’s outlook for corn this month requires “larger supplies, greater feed and residual use, increased exports and higher ending stocks.” USDA continues to be projecting common yields at 179.5 bushels per acre, regardless of widespread climate considerations earlier in the season earlier than stabilizing in latest weeks. The company additionally expects manufacturing to enhance by 175 million bushels based mostly on extra planted and harvested acres than was reported in its June 30 Acreage report.

“During June, harvested-area weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal but did not represent an extreme deviation from the 1988 to 2020 average,” USDA additionally notes in as we speak’s report. “For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July and USDA will provide its first survey-based corn yield forecast of the season in the August 12 Crop Production report.”

Farm Futures grain market analyst Jacquie Holland factors out that USDA’s June 30 Acreage and Quarterly Grain Shares experiences confirmed increased feed and residual disappearance in addition to strong intentions for 2021/22 export gross sales. The 1.6-million-acre enhance in 2021 corn acres added one other 175 million bushels of manufacturing to 2021 estimates.

USDA additionally upped its export forecast by 50 million bushels, besides, provides are anticipated to rise greater than utilization, with 2021/22 ending shares shifting 75 million bushels increased. In distinction, present advertising and marketing 12 months ending shares eased 25 million bushels decrease, to 1.082 billion bushels. The company additionally tilted the season-average farm worth 10 cents decrease, to $5.60 per bushel.

“An additional 50 million bushels was allocated to new crop corn export shipments, based in large part on current record-breaking corn export demand,” Holland says. “The additional 2021 production is expected to ease pressure on old crop ending stocks, which will end the 2020/21 season as the second tightest on record.”

However prospects for 2021 present extra respiration room, including an additional 9 days of carryout to new crop ending shares from the present 12 months’s meager 26 days, Holland additionally notes.

World ending shares for 2020/21 eased barely, to 11.018 billion bushels. That was a bit increased than the common commerce guess of 11.014 billion bushels. However world ending shares for 2021/22 trended 70 million bushels increased, reaching 11.464 billion bushels – a reversal from commerce estimates, which averaged 11.377 billion bushels.

Soybeans

USDA didn’t change its earlier soybean manufacturing estimates of 4.4 billion bushels – largely per analyst estimates of 4.394 billion bushels – with a steady harvested space of 86.7 million acres. Nonetheless, that’s 4.4 million extra acres than U.S. farmers harvested final fall.

USDA lowered its forecast for soybean imports, crushings and exports. The company notes “offsetting changes” for provide and demand. Ending shares for 2020/21 and 2021/22 stay unchanged, at 135 million bushels and 155 million bushels, respectively. Analysts had been hoping to see modest reductions for each of these numbers. The season-average farm worth fell 20 cents to $11.05 per bushel.

“U.S. soybean production and usage were left largely unchanged in today’s WASDE report,” Holland says. “Smaller 2020/21 imports were offset by lower crush and export estimates in the late months of 2020/21 as Chinese demand shifts to Brazil and processors scramble to source what few old crop soybean bushels remain in the countryside.”

World ending shares for 2020/21 soybeans improved from 3.233 billion bushels in June to three.361 million bushels, bucking the common commerce guess of three.219 billion bushels. World ending shares for 2021/22 additionally trended increased, shifting from 3.400 billion bushels in June as much as 3.472 billion bushels in as we speak’s report.

Wheat

For wheat, USDA assumes decreased provides, decrease home use, fewer exports and decrease ending shares. The company slashed all wheat manufacturing estimates by 152 million bushels to 1.746 billion bushels. All-wheat yield potential tumbled 4.9 bushels per acre decrease, to a brand new common of 45.8 bpa.

Meantime, the company dropped its projected exports to 875 million bushels, with feed and residual utilization sliding to 170 million bushels. Ending shares moved 105 million bushels decrease, to 665 million bushels – spilling to the bottom ranges since 2013/14. The season-average farm worth improved by a dime, shifting to $6.60 per bushel.

U.S. ending shares for 2021/22 tumbled from 770 million bushels in June right down to 665 million bushels in July. World ending shares for 2021/22 additionally noticed a decline, shifting from 10.904 billion bushels a month in the past right down to 10.716 billion bushels.

July-2021-WASDE-Wheat-Graphic.png

“Wheat production shortfalls in several key producers paved the day for wheat’s breakout gains in today’s report,” Holland says. “While the European Union, Ukraine and Australia are all likely to have bumper wheat crops this year, weather headaches in the U.S., Canada and Russia will play a big role in shrinking global stocks during the 2021/22 marketing year.”

Tightened wheat provides will seemingly draw down utilization charges over the subsequent 12 months in the U.S., Holland provides. Although with a big corn crop nonetheless anticipated this fall, the tradeoff between corn and wheat in livestock rations – each at dwelling and overseas – may proceed to pit the 2 grains in opposition to each other, she says.

 “Wheat exports will shrink to the lowest level since 2015/16 as white winter wheat crops in the Pacific Northwest roast in record-breaking heat in recent weeks,” Holland notes. “Some farmers estimate yield losses around 50% as parched crops wither in the heat. Quality concerns continue to rise with the thermometer as increasing protein levels in the maturing crop render white wheat supplies unfit for flour milling.”

White wheat’s low protein content material makes it ultimate for delicate pastries, noodles, and crackers. “The protein is so high that you can’t use (it) for anything but cattle feed,” Idaho wheat farmer Cordell Kress advised Reuters in a report printed in a single day.

“Chinese millers expanded interest in white wheat over the past year, sending U.S. white wheat exports to an unprecedented 265 million bushels during the 2020/21 wheat marketing year,” Holland says. “Export hopes remain high at the onset of the 2021/22 season but could be limited if yields fall short.”








































































2021/22 U.S. Corn & Soybean Manufacturing
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Corn Manufacturing  15,165  15,115 14,863 – 15,275  14,990
Corn Yield  179.5 *   178.8  177.0 – 179.5   179.5 * 
Soybean Manufacturing  4,405  4,394 4,335 -4,405  4,405
Soybean Yield  50.8 **   50.7  50.0 – 50.8   50.8 * 
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, NASS, Reuters
 
U.S. 2021/22 Wheat Manufacturing
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Laborious Crimson Winter Wheat  805  786  725 – 826   771
Mushy Crimson Winter Wheat  362  340  286 – 365   335
White Winter Wheat  237  205  170 – 250   2,020
Whole Winter Wheat  1404  1,331  1,256 – 1,372   1,309
Different Spring Wheat  305  459  358 – 560   – 
Durum  37  56  44 – 66   – 
All Wheat  1,746  1,847  1,724 – 1,947   1,898
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
U.S. 2020/21 Ending Shares
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Corn  1,082  1,088 1,000 – 1,257  1,107
Soybeans  135  134 120 – 149  135
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
U.S. 2021/22 Ending Shares
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Corn  1,432  1,402 1,057 – 1,542  1,357
Soybeans  155  148 120 – 165  155
Wheat  665  729 575 – 809  770
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
World 2020/21 Ending Shares
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Corn  11,018 11,014 10,866 – 11,181 11,047
Soybeans  3,361 3,219 3,180 – 3,259 3,233
Wheat  10,661 10,782 10,710 – 10,838 10,782
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
World 2021/22 Ending Shares
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Corn  11,464 11,377 11,197 – 11,614  11,394
Soybeans  3,472 3,401 3,347 – 3,435  3,400
Wheat  10,716 10,853 10,728 – 11,022  10,904
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
South American 2020/21 Corn and Soybean Manufacturing
million bushels USDA July Common Commerce Guess Vary of Commerce USDA June
Argentina        
Corn 1,909 1,869 1,850 – 1,890 1,850
Soybeans 1,708 1,712 1,653 – 1,764 1,727
Brazil        
Corn 3,661 3,630 3,461 – 3,819 3,878
Soybeans 5,033 5,025 4,923 – 5,070 5,033
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters
 
USDA World Manufacturing
million bushels USDA July 2020/21  USDA June 2020/21  USDA July 2021/22  USDA June 2021/22 
Argentina wheat   648  648  753  753
Australia wheat   1,212  1,212  1,047  992
Brazil Wheat  230  230  254  250
Canada wheat  1,293  1,293  1,157  1,176
Russia wheat   3,136  3,136  3,123  3,160
Argentina corn   1,909  1,850  2,008  2,008
Brazil corn  3,661  3,878  4,646  4,646
South Africa corn   669  669  669  669
China corn   10,263  10,263  10,551  10,551
Ukraine corn   1,193  1,193  1,476  1,476
Argentina soy   1,708  1,727  1,910  1,910
Brazil soy  5,033  5,033  5,291  5,291
Supply: USDA Workplace of the Chief Economist, Reuters

 

 

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